在资源有限时,最优分配需结合算法与人工筛查,提升效率。
The Limits of AI-Driven Allocation: Optimal Screening under Aleatoric Uncertainty

- 两阶段框架:先筛选部分个体真实状况,再结合算法分配资源。
- 当不确定性高时,筛查能显著提升资源分配效率。
- 适合政策制定者和人道救援机构参考,尤其在成本敏感场景。
机器学习推动政策与人道援助中的资源分配向基于风险评分的算法靶向转变,相比传统需实地验证的筛查方式更便宜高效。然而,即使掌握真实的条件脆弱性概率,仍无法避免误配:个体脆弱性状态中的随机不确定性(aleatoric uncertainty)不可消除,概率性分配必然导致部分资源错配。本文研究在两阶段分配框架下,如何最优结合筛查与算法分配——先对部分单位进行真实状态观测,再在固定覆盖预算下完成最终分配。研究发现,最优策略是筛选算法分配边缘的个体,直接针对高风险群体。我们实证分析表明,当人群中的随机不确定性越高,筛查带来的效率提升越明显。案例应用于哥伦比亚的收入型社会保护计划与人道排雷项目,凸显筛查成本与分配效率之间的实际权衡。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
The rise of machine learning has shifted targeted resource allocation in policy and humanitarian settings toward algorithmic targeting based on predicted risk scores. This approach is typically cheaper and faster than traditional screening procedures that directly observe the latent vulnerability status through physical verification. Yet, even access to the true conditional vulnerability probability cannot eliminate misallocation: aleatoric uncertainty over individual vulnerability status is irreducible, and probabilistic targeting inevitably misallocates some resources. In this work we study how screening and algorithmic targeting should be optimally combined in a two-stage allocation framework where a screening stage observes true outcomes for a subset of units before a final allocation stage assigns the resource under a fixed coverage budget. We show that the optimal strategy screens units at the margin of algorithmic allocation, while directly targeting the highest-risk units. Furthermore, we empirically characterize when screening and algorithmic targeting act as complements or substitutes: efficiency gains from screening grow as the aleatoric uncertainty in the population increases. We illustrate our framework with applications in income-based social protection programs and humanitarian demining in Colombia, where the tension between screening costs and allocation efficiency is operationally consequential.
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