arXiv:2605.08005cs.LG2026-05

提出新方法STEPS,提升时间序列预测在分布漂移下的适应能力。

STEPS: A Temporal Smooth Error Propagation Solver on the Manifolds for Test-Time Adaptation in Time Series Forecasting

论文配图:STEPS: A Temporal Smooth Error Propagation Solver on the Manifolds for Test-Time Adaptation in Time Series Forecasting
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 将预测时适应建模为流形上的狄利克雷边界问题,利用时间平滑性传播误差
  • 在6个基准上平均降低26.82%的均方误差,优于最强基线12.77%
  • 适合处理稀疏或噪声污染的推理前缀,尤其适用于在线场景

测试时适应(TTA)旨在通过推理阶段揭示的少量观测值,在分布漂移下提升时间序列预测性能。然而,预测类TTA需在无源在线设置下运行,适应信号短、时间相关且可能含噪。现有方法因此常面临识别弱、误差累积和长时程修正不稳的问题,尤其当揭示前缀稀疏或受污染时。为此,我们提出STEPS,一种针对时间序列预测中TTA的平滑时间误差传播求解器。STEPS将预测TTA重构为时间流形上的狄利克雷边界值问题,其中揭示前缀的误差作为未知未来误差场的边界条件。随后,STEPS在预测空间求解一个平滑且有界的修正场:局部求解器在时间平滑性约束下传播前缀误差,全局求解器提取稳定的跨窗口误差记忆,时空流形融合(SMF)则整合两者得到最终修正。在六个标准基准和四种冻结主干网络上,STEPS相比零样本主干平均相对均方误差降低26.82%,超越最强对比基线12.77%。额外的稀疏前缀与污染测试进一步验证了STEPS在有限和噪声前缀下的鲁棒性。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Test-Time Adaptation (TTA) aims to improve time series forecasting under distribution shifts by using limited observations revealed during inference. However, forecasting TTA must operate in a source-free online setting, where the adaptation signal is short, temporally correlated, and potentially noisy. Existing methods can therefore suffer from weak identifiability, error accumulation, and unstable long-horizon corrections when the revealed prefix is sparse or contaminated. To address these issues, we propose STEPS, a Smooth Temporal Error Propagation Solver for TTA in time-series forecasting. STEPS reformulates forecasting TTA as a Dirichlet Boundary Value Problem on a temporal manifold, where the revealed prefix error serves as the boundary condition for the unknown future error field. Then, STEPS solves a smooth and bounded correction field in prediction space: a Local Solver propagates prefix errors under temporal smoothness, a Global Solver retrieves stable cross-window error memory and Spatiotemporal Manifold Fusion (SMF) integrates both solutions into the final correction. Across six standard benchmarks and four frozen backbones, STEPS achieves an average relative MSE reduction of 26.82% over the zero-shot backbone, exceeding the strongest compared TTA baseline by 12.77%. Additional sparse prefix and contamination tests confirm the robustness of STEPS under limited and noisy prefixes.

时间序列测试时适应误差传播流形学习

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