arXiv:2605.08140physics.ins-detcs.AI2026-05

用深度学习预测氚源稳定性恢复时间,提升实验效率。

Forecasting Source Stability in Scientific Experiments using Temporal Learning Models: A Case Study from Tritium Monitoring

论文配图:Forecasting Source Stability in Scientific Experiments using Temporal Learning Models: A Case Study from Tritium Monitoring
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 采用LSTM、N-BEATS等时序模型预测氚源失稳后恢复时间。
  • N-BEATS模型表现最佳,可准确预测数百个时间点的稳定性变化。
  • 成果可用于物理实验的维护调度,适合高精度实验研究者。

卡尔斯鲁厄氚中微子实验(KATRIN)旨在以空前灵敏度测量中微子质量,需精确监测无窗气态氚源的活性,该源中发生氚β衰变。为追踪源活性变化,β射线激发的X射线谱学提供实时诊断。然而,传统漂移检测方法难以应对气态氚中不频繁且短暂的不稳定事件。本研究将前沿时序预测模型与真实实验应用结合,利用深度学习预测不稳定后的稳定时间。我们应用了包括LSTM、N-BEATS、TFT、NHITS、DLinear、NLinear、TSMixer和Chronos-LLM在内的多种模型,处理复杂大规模实验数据。研究揭示两大挑战:从稀疏不稳定事件中学习,以及长时序预测(即预测数百个未来点),这两者均为时序预测中的持续难题。该预测任务具有直接实验价值,可优化测量与维护计划。可靠的稳定性预测使稳定期的测量与任务管理更高效。通过模型选择,发现N-BEATS表现最优,兼具高精度与可重复性,证明深度学习可优化大型物理实验。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

The Karlsruhe Tritium Neutrino Experiment (KATRIN) aims to measure the absolute neutrino mass with unprecedented sensitivity, requiring precise monitoring of the windowless gaseous tritium source, where tritium beta decay occurs. To track variations of the source activity, beta-induced X-ray spectroscopy provides real-time diagnostics. However, traditional drift detection methods struggle with the infrequent and transient nature of instability events in gaseous tritium. This study bridges the gap between state-of-the-art time-series forecasting models and real-world experimental applications by leveraging deep learning to predict the time to stability after instabilities. Unlike standard benchmarking approaches that emphasize algorithmic performance on fixed datasets, we apply forecasting models -- including LSTM, N-BEATS, TFT, NHITS, DLinear, NLinear, TSMixer, and Chronos-LLM -- to complex, large-scale experimental data. Our findings highlight two challenges: learning from sparse instability events and forecasting long time horizons (i.e., predicting hundreds of future points), both of which are ongoing challenges in time-series forecasting and remain active areas of research. This prediction task has direct experimental value by enabling better scheduling and maintenance planning. A reliable forecast of stability time allows for more efficient measurement and task management during stabilization periods. Through model selection, we identified N-BEATS as the top performer, excelling in accuracy and repeatability, demonstrating that deep learning can optimize large-scale physics experiments.

时序预测物理实验深度学习氚源监测

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