让不确定性集合更懂决策,提升鲁棒优化的实用性和准确性
Learning Polyhedral Conformal Sets for Robust Optimization
- 用数据学习多面体形式的不确定性集,直接优化决策损失
- 在有限样本下保证覆盖概率,且子优性差距有理论界
- 适合需要兼顾统计可靠性和决策效率的工业场景
鲁棒优化为不确定性下的决策提供理论框架,但其性能高度依赖不确定性集的选择。过大的集合导致过度保守,过小的集合可能遗漏真实结果。近期基于数据的拟合预测方法虽提供有限样本有效性保障,但大多任务无关,忽视下游决策结构。本文提出一种面向决策的拟合框架,学习与鲁棒优化目标对齐的不确定性集。通过数据驱动的超平面参数化一族灵活的多面体集,并直接最小化诱导的鲁棒损失来学习其几何结构,同时通过拟合校准保持统计有效性。为纠正数据依赖选择偏差,引入独立数据集上的再校准步骤以恢复覆盖率。所得集合能捕捉与决策目标一致的方向性与各向异性不确定性,同时保持计算可处理性。我们给出有限样本覆盖率保证及与理想决策的次优性差距上界。该工作弥合了统计有效性与决策最优性之间的鸿沟,为数据驱动的鲁棒优化提供了一个原则性框架。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Robust optimization (RO) provides a principled framework for decision-making under uncertainty, but its performance critically depends on the choice of the uncertainty set. While large sets ensure reliability, they often lead to overly conservative decisions, whereas small sets risk excluding the true outcome. Recent data-driven approaches, particularly conformal prediction, offer finite-sample validity guarantees but remain largely task-agnostic, ignoring the downstream decision structure. In this paper, we propose a decision-aware conformal framework that learns uncertainty sets tailored to robust optimization objectives. Our approach parameterizes a flexible family of polyhedral sets via data-driven hyperplanes and learns their geometry by directly minimizing the induced robust loss, while preserving statistical validity through conformal calibration. To correct for data-dependent selection, we incorporate a re-calibration step on an independent dataset to restore coverage. The resulting sets capture directional and anisotropic uncertainty aligned with the decision objective while remaining computationally tractable. We provide finite-sample coverage guarantees and bounds on the sub-optimality gap to an oracle decision. This work bridges the gap between statistical validity and decision optimality, providing a principled framework for data-driven robust optimization.
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