arXiv:2605.08561stat.MLcs.LG2026-05ICLR被引 13

用流模型生成高维输出的可靠预测区域,精度远超传统方法。

CONTRA: Conformal Prediction Region via Normalizing Flow Transformation

论文配图:CONTRA: Conformal Prediction Region via Normalizing Flow Transformation
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 利用流模型潜空间距离定义非一致性分数,生成精准预测区域。
  • 在多个数据集上覆盖概率达标,且区域更紧凑准确。
  • 可适配任意模型,适合需要可信输出范围的研究与应用。

密度估计和输出的可靠预测区域在监督与无监督学习中至关重要。虽然合规预测能生成有覆盖率保证的区域,但在多维输出场景下表现不佳,因其依赖一维非一致性分数。为此,我们提出 CONTRA:基于归一化流变换的合规预测区域。CONTRA 利用归一化流的潜空间,通过距中心的距离定义非一致性分数,将潜空间中的高密度区域映射到输出空间中的锐利预测区域,优于传统的超矩形或椭圆形合规区域。此外,对于偏好其他预测模型而非流模型的场景,我们扩展 CONTRA,通过对残差训练简单归一化流,为任意模型增强可靠预测区域。我们证明,CONTRA 及其扩展均保持保证的覆盖率,并在多个数据集上生成更精确的预测区域。结论表明,CONTRA 是一种有效的(条件)密度估计工具,解决了多维预测区域这一未充分探索的挑战。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Density estimation and reliable prediction regions for outputs are crucial in supervised and unsupervised learning. While conformal prediction effectively generates coverage-guaranteed regions, it struggles with multi-dimensional outputs due to reliance on one-dimensional nonconformity scores. To address this, we introduce CONTRA: CONformal prediction region via normalizing flow TRAnsformation. CONTRA utilizes the latent spaces of normalizing flows to define nonconformity scores based on distances from the center. This allows for the mapping of high-density regions in latent space to sharp prediction regions in the output space, surpassing traditional hyperrectangular or elliptical conformal regions. Further, for scenarios where other predictive models are favored over flow-based models, we extend CONTRA to enhance any such model with a reliable prediction region by training a simple normalizing flow on the residuals. We demonstrate that both CONTRA and its extension maintain guaranteed coverage probability and outperform existing methods in generating accurate prediction regions across various datasets. We conclude that CONTRA is an effective tool for (conditional) density estimation, addressing the under-explored challenge of delivering multi-dimensional prediction regions.

合规预测流模型多维预测密度估计

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