用大模型生成多样应急场景,提升风险推演准确性
What Will Happen Next: Large Models-Driven Deduction for Emergency Instances

- 用大模型动态生成不同发展路径的应急事件
- 在多领域测试中实现高精度、高保真推演
- 支持图文结合可视化,适合应急决策研究者
传统仿真方法依赖预设参数重现已发生的应急事件,用于辅助风险评估与决策。然而,由于缺乏随机性和多样性,现有系统难以充分探索潜在风险,尤其在事件稀少的情况下。相比之下,大模型(LMs)可动态调整生成策略以引入可控随机性,并具备广泛先验知识和跨领域迁移能力。受此启发,我们提出大模型驱动的世界线发散系统(WLDS),实现多领域应急事件的多样化可视化与推演。WLDS利用大模型在不同发展方向上推演应急事件,并引入事实校准与逻辑校准机制,确保推演过程中的事实准确性和逻辑严谨性。交互模块允许用户独立选择推演方向,避免系统难以识别的幻觉问题。此外,通过引入可视化模块,系统实现文本与图像结合的仿真与推演,提升可解释性。在自建的应急事件推演(EID)基准数据集上的大量实验表明,WLDS在多个具体领域中实现了高精度、高保真的应急事件模拟与推演。相关实验还证明,WLDS能为用户提供更多推演数据,为未来类似应急事件的决策提供支持。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Traditional simulation methods reproduce occurred emergency instances through presetting to assist people in risk assessment and emergency decision-making. However, due to the lack of randomness and diversity, existing simulation systems struggle to fully explore the potential risk as emergency instances are scarce. In contrast, Large Models (LMs) can dynamically adjust generation strategies to introduce controllable randomness, while also possessing extensive prior knowledge and cross-domain knowledge transfer capabilities. Inspired by it, we propose the LMs-driven World Line Divergence System (WLDS), which enables diversified visualization and deduction of emergency instances in different domains. WLDS leverages LMs to deduce emergency instances in various development directions, and introduces the factual calibration and logical calibration mechanism to ensure factual accuracy and logical rigor during the deduction process. The interactive module can independently select deduction directions to avoid potential hallucinations that are difficult for the system to identify. Furthermore, by introducing the visualization module, WLDS forms simulation and deduction that combine text and images, which enhances interpretability. Extensive experiments conducted on the proposed Emergency Instances Deduction (EID) benchmark dataset demonstrate that WLDS achieves high-precision and high-fidelity simulation and deduction of emergency instances in multiple specific domains. Relevant experiments further demonstrate that WLDS can generate more emergency instances deduction data for users and provide support for better decision-making in similar emergency instances in the future.
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