arXiv:2605.08625cs.LGcs.AI2026-05被引 1

让时间序列模型学会像人一样推理,同时提升预测精度。

Reasoning-Aware Training for Time Series Forecasting

论文配图:Reasoning-Aware Training for Time Series Forecasting
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 用连续嵌入注入大模型推理能力,避免离散分词破坏数值关系。
  • 在GIFT-Eval上达到0.674 MASE、0.454 CRPS的顶尖表现。
  • 可插拔增强多种时间序列模型,适合需要可解释性的场景。

时间序列基础模型(TSFMs)在数值预测上表现优异,但缺乏定性推理能力。直接将大语言模型(LLM)应用于时间数据会产生模态鸿沟:文本分词器会打碎连续数值,破坏数学关系并导致序列长度激增,带来计算开销。为此,我们提出STRIDE(通过蒸馏嵌入注入策略性时间序列推理),一种原生融合LLM推理能力到TSFMs连续嵌入空间的新框架。不同于离散标记,STRIDE将推理过程蒸馏为轻量级LLM,动态将其均值池化隐藏状态作为跨模态先验投影至目标数值编码器。该架构联合优化交叉熵与分位数损失。评估表明,STRIDE在GIFT-Eval上达到0.674 MASE、0.454 CRPS,优于现有TSFMs;并在TFRBench上展现出更优的领域内与域外数值及推理性能。具体而言,STRIDE作为即插即用增强模块,能持续提升多种TSFMs(如Chronos-2、Timer-S1)在不同LLM配置下的表现。因此,以连续先验注入语义推理,使TSFMs兼具人类可解释性与根本性预测精度提升。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) excel at numerical forecasting but operate as black boxes lacking qualitative reasoning. Conversely, applying LLMs directly to temporal data introduces a modality gap: text tokenizers fragment continuous numerical values, degrading mathematical relationships and exploding sequence lengths, leading to computational overhead. To resolve this, we introduce STRIDE (Strategic Time-series Reasoning Injected via Distilled Embeddings), a novel framework natively integrating LLM reasoning into the continuous embedding space of TSFMs. Instead of discrete tokens, STRIDE distills reasoning traces into a lightweight LLM, dynamically projecting its mean-pooled hidden states as a cross-modal prior into the target numerical encoder. The architecture is jointly optimized using cross-entropy and quantile losses. Evaluations demonstrate STRIDE establishes state-of-the-art numerical forecasting on GIFT-Eval (0.674 MASE, 0.454 CRPS) compared to TSFMs and exhibits superior in-domain and out-of-domain numerical as well as reasoning performance on TFRBench. Specifically, STRIDE acts as a plug-and-play enhancement, consistently improving diverse TSFMs (e.g., Chronos-2, Timer-S1) across various LLM configurations. Thus, injecting semantic reasoning as a continuous prior equips TSFMs with human-interpretable reasoning while fundamentally improving predictive accuracy.

时间序列大模型推理增强可解释性

Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。