用元学习实现零样本故障溯源,推理快至17毫秒
PRIM: Meta-Learned Bayesian Root Cause Analysis
- 将故障溯源建模为贝叶斯推断,通过合成先验自动捕捉因果结构变化
- 在100变量系统上实现17毫秒零样本推理,性能优于无图先验方法
- 适合需要快速、无需图结构的工业级系统故障诊断场景
复杂系统中的故障溯源因变量间误差传播、需因果知识及推理开销大而困难。我们提出PRIM(先验拟合的根因识别),一种基于元学习的因果推断方法,将溯源视为对合成因果模型先验的贝叶斯推断。通过边缘化结构不确定性,PRIM隐式识别基线与异常期数据生成机制的变化,无需显式统计检验即可推断分布差异,并在测试时无需模型拟合即能学习因果结构。采用基于模拟的元学习范式,结合模型平均因果估计(MACE)Transformer神经过程,联合关注观测与异常样本及节点因果结构,实现100变量系统下17毫秒内的零样本推理。在合成基准与真实数据集PetShop和CausRCA上,其表现优于无图先验方法,且在特定领域轻量微调后进一步提升性能。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Root cause analysis (RCA) in complex systems is challenging due to error propagation across multiple variables, the need for structural causal knowledge, and the computational cost of inference at test time. We introduce PRIM (Prior-fitted Root cause Identification with Meta-learning), a causal meta-learning approach that frames RCA as a Bayesian inference task over a synthetic prior of causal models. By marginalising out structural uncertainty, PRIM implicitly identifies changes in the data-generating mechanism between baseline and anomalous periods. In doing so, PRIM infers distributional differences without explicit statistical testing, and implicitly learns causal structure without model fitting at test time. Following the simulation-based meta-learning paradigm of prior-fitted networks, PRIM uses a Model-Averaged Causal Estimation (MACE) transformer neural process that jointly attends over observational and anomalous samples and the causal structure of nodes, enabling zero-shot inference in 17,ms for systems with up to 100 variables. Across synthetic benchmarks and two realistic benchmark datasets, PetShop and CausRCA, PRIM is competitive with methods that are aware of the system's causal graphical structure a priori while outperforming graph-unaware methods on several tasks. Lightweight fine-tuning to specific domains and data dynamics improves performance further.
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