arXiv:2605.09032cs.CLcs.AI2026-05

用量子启发核提升风电光伏跨区域预测,兼具高精度与可解释性。

A Quantum Inspired Variational Kernel and Explainable AI Framework for Cross Region Solar and Wind Energy Forecasting

  • 分四阶段:数据采集、经典模型预测、量子启发核修正残差、生成式解释
  • 跨三大区域预测误差低于最强基线1个百分点,气象区分能力提升15倍
  • 适合电力系统预测与可解释AI研究者,兼顾性能与决策透明度

可靠的短时太阳能与风能发电预测是现代电力系统的基础前提。然而,多数现有预测模型仅在单一气候条件下调优与评估,且算法创新多集中于经典循环网络或融合预测与解释的单体基础模型。本文提出四阶段混合框架,分离预测与解释任务:第一阶段通过公开API获取小时级发电量、辐照度与地表气象数据;第二阶段训练三种经典基线(ARIMA、梯度提升回归树、双层LSTM),生成强点预测及残差序列;第三阶段利用六量子比特硬件高效变分参数化构造量子启发核,经三重纠缠层优化残差;第四阶段采用生成式AI作为纯粹可解释层,基于实测基准数据生成结构化自然语言解释。在来自公开档案的三个区域(伊比利亚太阳能、北海风电、德克萨斯混合数据)上,该方法在域内预测任务中误差仅比最强经典基线高1个百分点,且量子启发核对平静与风暴天气的区分能力较调优径向基核高出约15倍。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Reliable short horizon forecasting of solar and wind generation is a structural prerequisite of any modern power system yet most published forecasters are tuned and evaluated on a single climatic regime and most algorithmic novelty has been concentrated either on classical recurrent networks or on monolithic foundation models that combine forecasting and explanation We develop a four stage hybrid framework that separates these concerns The first stage acquires hourly generation irradiance and surface weather records through public application programming interfaces The second stage trains three classical baselines autoregressive integrated moving average gradient boosted regression trees and a two layer long short term memory network and produces a strong point forecast together with a residual error series The third stage corrects the residual through a quantum inspired variational kernel built on a six qubit hardware efficient ansatz with three repeated entangling layers The fourth stage uses generative artificial intelligence strictly as an explainability layer that reads the measured benchmark numbers and produces a structured natural language interpretation Across three regions drawn from open public archives Iberian solar North Sea wind and a mixed Texas trace the proposed configuration stays within one percentage point of the strongest classical baseline on the in domain forecasting task and the quantum inspired kernel separates calm and stormy weather regimes with a Fisher discriminant ratio approximately fifteen fold higher than a tuned radial basis kernel

能源预测量子启发可解释AI

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