用图注意力模型高效预测风暴潮峰值,提升极端事件模拟精度。
PACT: Peak-Aware Cross-Attention Graph Transformers for Efficient Storm-Surge Emulation

- 将气象强迫场建模为图,通过交叉注意力聚焦关键站点信息。
- 在多个沿海站点上,均方根误差和平均绝对误差优于基线模型。
- 适合需要快速评估气候情景下风暴潮风险的研究者使用。
精确高效的风暴潮模拟对沿海灾害评估至关重要,但高保真水动力模型在大规模情景集合和异质气候强迫下的快速评估中仍成本过高。本文提出PACT,一种面向站级风暴潮预测的峰值感知交叉注意力图变换器,从大气强迫场出发进行建模。PACT将每个强迫区域表示为图结构,利用GraphSAGE编码空间特征,并通过可学习的站点查询实现跨注意力信息聚合,替代传统均匀池化。时间依赖性由Transformer编码器建模,而时序记忆共享的时序查询解码器生成多步预测。为更好捕捉极端事件,引入峰值感知学习策略,包含针对峰值主导样本的尾部聚焦损失及逐时程斜率正则化,以保证多步演化一致性。在美东北沿海多个验潮站测试中,PACT在RMSE与MAE指标上均优于强基线时空图神经网络模型。诊断分析显示其在再分析数据及多数CMIP6数据集下具有更优的峰值拟合与尾部保留能力。训练后,单年冬季季节完整潮位轨迹生成仅需约3.5~秒,计算效率高。但在五种CMIP6强迫间迁移表现良好,而从再分析到气候模式强迫迁移时性能显著下降,凸显再分析与全球气候模型间的持续差距。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Accurate and efficient storm-surge emulation is essential for coastal hazard assessment, yet high-fidelity hydrodynamic models remain too expensive for large scenario ensembles and rapid evaluation under heterogeneous climate forcings. We present PACT, a peak-aware cross-attention graph transformer for efficient station-level storm-surge prediction from atmospheric forcing fields. PACT represents each forcing patch as a graph, encodes spatial structure with GraphSAGE, and uses a learned station query to aggregate node information through cross-attention rather than uniform pooling. A Transformer encoder models temporal dependence across the forcing history, and a horizon-query decoder generates lead-specific forecasts from a shared temporal memory. To better capture extreme events, we introduce a peak-aware learning strategy that couples a lightweight auxiliary peak-aware head with a tailored training objective, including a tail-focused loss on peak-dominated samples and a horizon-wise slope regularizer to encourage coherent multi-step evolution. Across multiple tide-gauge stations along the US Northeast coast, PACT outperforms a strong spatio-temporal graph neural network baseline in both RMSE and MAE. Diagnostics show improved peak fidelity and tail preservation for reanalysis and most CMIP6 datasets. PACT is also computationally efficient, requiring about 3.5~s to generate a full winter-season surge trajectory for one year after training. Under distribution shift across five CMIP6 forcings, PACT transfers well within the CMIP6 family but degrades markedly when transferring from reanalysis to climate-model forcings, highlighting a persistent reanalysis--GCM gap.
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