arXiv:2605.09061q-fin.CPcs.LG2026-05被引 1

将市场规则融入神经网络,提升电力不平衡价格预测效率与准确性

A Market-Rule-Informed Neural Network for Efficient Imbalance Electricity Price Forecasting

论文配图:A Market-Rule-Informed Neural Network for Efficient Imbalance Electricity Price Forecasting
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 在神经网络隐空间嵌入市场规则先验,融合真实信号与规则知识
  • 参数量更少、训练更快,性能优于通用深度学习模型
  • 适合工业级能源交易系统,尤其适用于数据不完整场景

准确高效的不平衡电力价格预测对工业能源交易系统至关重要,尤其在电池资产和自动化竞价流程日益参与平衡市场的背景下。然而,实时预测面临非线性市场规则定价、异构输入信号以及通信延迟、发布滞后和测量中断导致的数据缺失等挑战。本文提出一种市场规则引导的神经预测框架,将不平衡价格形成规则嵌入表达性强的神经网络的隐空间中。该框架在保留原始信号信息的同时,利用透明的市场规则先验。我们进一步通过移除价格成分信息分析了运行鲁棒性,并研究了预测性能随输入长度和预测时长的变化规律。实验表明,所提模型在可比性能下显著减少可训练参数数量并缩短训练时间,优于通用深度学习基线。结果证明,结合市场规则先验与表达性神经网络,是实现工业能源交易中精准且计算可持续预测的关键。代码已公开:https://runyao-yu.github.io/MRINN/

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Accurate and efficient imbalance electricity price forecasting is critical for industrial energy trading systems, especially as battery assets and automated bidding pipelines increasingly participate in balancing markets. However, real-time forecasting is complicated by nonlinear market-rule-based price formation, heterogeneous input signals, and incomplete data availability caused by communication delays, publication lags, and measurement outages. This paper proposes a market-rule-informed neural forecasting framework that embeds imbalance price formation rules into the latent space of an expressive neural network. The proposed framework preserves raw signal information while exploiting transparent market-rule priors. We further analyze operational robustness by removing price-component information and characterize how forecasting performance scales with input length and forecasting horizon. Experimental results show that the proposed model achieves competitive forecasting performance with substantially fewer trainable parameters and shorter training time than generic deep learning baselines. Experimental results show that the proposed model achieves competitive forecasting performance with substantially fewer trainable parameters and shorter training time than generic deep learning baselines, demonstrating that market-rule priors and expressive neural networks should be jointly used for accurate and computationally sustainable forecasting in industrial energy trading applications. The implementation is publicly available at https://runyao-yu.github.io/MRINN/.

电力预测神经网络市场规则能源交易

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