提出一种高效神经模型,解决模糊场景下的序列选择问题。
Contextual Plackett-Luce: An Efficient Neural Model for Probabilistic Sequence Selection under Ambiguity

- 基于上下文的普莱克特-卢克模型,结合并行评分与轻量自回归选择
- 在多模态路径预测和代表性子集选择任务中性能优于现有方法
- 适合需要高效处理不确定输出的任务,如轨迹预测与推荐系统
在结构化预测任务中,如检测、轨迹预测和代表性子集选择,选择连贯序列或元素子集是核心问题。许多场景下目标本质具有模糊性:每个输入对应多个有效输出,但监督信号仅提供单一采样实例,导致潜在多模态目标分布与观测训练信号之间存在不匹配。我们提出上下文普莱克特-卢克(CPL)模型,将经典普莱克特-卢克模型扩展为上下文依赖形式,采用类似伊辛模型的参数化方式,包含一元和成对交互项。CPL可视为完全自回归预测与并行序列选择的混合:自回归模型能有效捕捉不确定性,但现代并行硬件(如GPU)上计算开销大;并行方法效率高,却难以表示多模态依赖。CPL通过全并行方式构建概率选择模型参数,随后进行轻量自回归选择,每步对上下文逻辑值进行增量更新。这种并行评分与顺序选择解耦的设计,在不牺牲表达能力的前提下实现了高效计算。我们在两个结构化选择任务上评估:多模态路径预测和代表性子集选择。结果表明,相较于强基线并行方法,CPL在模糊监督下表现出更优的结构一致性与鲁棒性。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Selecting a coherent sequence or subset of elements is a fundamental problem in structured prediction, arising in tasks such as detection, trajectory forecasting, and representative subset selection. In many such settings, the target is inherently ambiguous: each input admits multiple valid outputs, while supervision provides only a single sampled instance. This induces a mismatch between the underlying multi-modal target distribution and the observed training signal. We propose Contextual Plackett-Luce (CPL), a structured probabilistic model for sequence selection that extends the classical Plackett-Luce model to a context-dependent setting following an Ising-style parameterization with unary and pairwise interaction terms. CPL can be viewed as a hybrid between fully autoregressive prediction and parallel sequence selection: autoregressive models effectively capture uncertainty but are computationally expensive on modern parallel hardware such as GPUs, while parallel methods are efficient but struggle to represent multi-modal dependencies. CPL combines the strengths of both by constructing the parameters of a probabilistic selection model in a fully parallel manner, followed by a lightweight autoregressive selection process in which each step applies incremental updates to contextual logits. This decoupling of parallel scoring and sequential selection enables efficient computation without sacrificing expressivity. We evaluate CPL on two structured selection tasks: multi-modal path prediction and representative subset selection. CPL achieves improved structural consistency and robustness under ambiguous supervision compared to strong parallel baselines.
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