arXiv:2605.09208cs.LG2026-05中稿 · IEEE Transactions …

TSNN无需训练参数,通过记忆匹配实现可解释的交通流量预测。

TSNN: A Non-parametric and Interpretable Framework for Traffic Time Series Forecasting

论文配图:TSNN: A Non-parametric and Interpretable Framework for Traffic Time Series Forecasting
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 用记忆库匹配时间序列,分层解耦数据特征
  • 在四个真实数据集上表现媲美深度学习模型
  • 可直观展示每个时间步的贡献,适合需要透明性的场景

尽管已有许多复杂模型用于分析时间序列数据,但一些研究证明简单结构也能取得优异效果。最近一项工作提出一种用于3D点云分类的非参数框架,具有向时间序列预测迁移的潜力,并支持可解释性。受此启发,我们提出TSNN——一种针对交通时间序列预测的非参数且可解释的框架。TSNN由多层组成,通过匹配记忆库中的条目来解耦时间序列,该记忆库利用训练集内的相似匹配过程构建。模型利用交通数据的周期性特征提升预测精度,同时保持简洁架构。所提模型不包含可训练参数,从而保证内在可解释性。实验表明,TSNN在四个真实世界交通流数据集上的表现与典型深度学习模型相当。我们还可视化了解耦过程以验证组件有效性,并展示了模型的可解释性及记忆库中各时间步的贡献度。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Although many complex models were proposed to analyze time series data, some studies have demonstrated remarkable performance with simpler structures. A recent study proposed a non-parametric framework for 3D point cloud classification, which has the potential to be adapted for time series forecasting and enable interpretability. Inspired by the previous works, we present TSNN, a non-parametric and interpretable framework for traffic time series forecasting. TSNN consists of multiple layers that decouple the time series by matching the entries in a memory bank, where the memory bank is constructed using a similar matching process within the training set. It leverages the periodicity in traffic data to enhance forecasting accuracy while maintaining a simple model architecture. The proposed model operates without trainable parameters, preserving its inherent interpretability. In the experiments, TSNN achieves competitive performance compared to the typical deep learning models in four real-world traffic flow datasets. We also visualize the decoupling process to show the effectiveness of the components. Finally, we demonstrate the interpretability of the model and illustrate the contribution of each time step within the memory bank.

时间序列交通预测可解释性非参数

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