arXiv:2605.09718stat.MLcs.LG2026-05

用归一化流学习单轨迹下的多尺度随机系统动态,突破数据稀缺限制。

Learning stochastic multiscale models through normalizing flows

  • 通过随机平均化构建保留动力学结构的降维模型。
  • 利用归一化流建模快速变量的不变分布,实现端到端训练。
  • 支持不确定性量化,适合高维复杂系统的数据分析。

物理、工程和生物系统中普遍存在多尺度随机动力学,其中低维慢变量受高维快过程影响。实际观测通常仅能获取慢变量的单一轨迹,而快动态不可见,导致统计学习困难。传统基于偏微分方程(如Fokker-Planck)的方法需密集时空数据或网格求解器。本文采用基于轨迹的视角,提出一种从单条观测路径中学习有效随机动力学的数据驱动框架。通过耦合多尺度随机微分方程建模,先进行严格的随机平均化以实现模型降维。与主成分分析等通用方法不同,该方法保留原始系统的动力学结构,并显式刻画慢-快尺度间的相互作用。核心挑战在于:降维模型依赖于快过程的不变分布,而其是难以求解的未知偏微分方程的解。为此,本文引入新型学习框架,使用归一化流参数化该不变分布,实现在隐空间中的表达性密度建模。整个流程通过优化由简化动力学诱导的惩罚似然目标实现端到端训练。此外,设计了贝叶斯变分推断方法,采用第二个归一化流近似模型参数的后验分布,从而可扩展地捕捉多尺度系统的认知不确定性。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Many systems in physics, engineering, and biology exhibit multiscale stochastic dynamics, where low-dimensional slow variables evolve under the influence of high-dimensional fast processes. In practice, observations are often limited to a single trajectory of the slow component, while the fast dynamics remain unobserved, making statistical learning challenging. Approaches based on partial differential equations (PDE), such as Fokker-Planck formulations, aim to characterize the evolution of probability densities, typically requiring dense space-time data or grid-based solvers. In contrast, we adopt a trajectory-based perspective and develop a data-driven framework for learning effective stochastic dynamics from a single observed path. We model the dynamics by coupled multiscale stochastic differential equations (SDEs) and first obtain a principled model reduction through stochastic averaging. Unlike generic model reduction techniques such as PCA, this respects the dynamical structure of the original system and explicitly incorporates the interaction between slow and fast scales. A central challenge, however, is that the reduced model depends on the invariant distribution of the fast process, which is a solution to an intractable and often unknown PDE. We introduce a novel learning framework that parameterizes the invariant distribution using normalizing flows, enabling expressive density modeling in the latent fast-variable space. The flow is trained end-to-end by optimizing a penalized likelihood objective induced by the reduced stochastic dynamics. Furthermore, we develop a Bayesian variational inference procedure for uncertainty quantification, employing a second normalizing flow to approximate the posterior distribution over model parameters. This yields a scalable approach to capturing epistemic uncertainty in multiscale systems.

多尺度建模归一化流随机微分方程不确定性量化

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