arXiv:2605.09790cs.DCcs.AI2026-05

用多级标注与物理引导学习,实现大规模低轨卫星异常检测。

Multi-Tier Labeling and Physics-Informed Learning for Orbital Anomaly Detection at Scale

  • 构建三级弱监督标签流水线:规则、滤波器与校准协同生成标签。
  • 处理2.32亿条轨道数据,发现43000万次异常时间步,异常检出量提升42.6倍。
  • 模型以高召回率筛选候选事件,适合用于碰撞预警等下游任务。

检测低地球轨道(LEO)卫星的轨道异常(如机动、大气衰减、姿态失稳)是避免碰撞、预测衰减和进行交会筛查的前提。瓶颈在于标签:缺乏公开的真实异常数据集,人工标注无法扩展至约10⁴颗活跃卫星,纯规则检测器虽精度高但漏检严重。本文提出多级标注级联方法,融合三种逐步提升置信度的弱监督信号:快速物理规则集(rule_v1)、交互多模型无迹卡尔曼滤波器组(IMM-UKF)和补充元素校准步骤(supGP),在单源不可行时实现规模化标注。应用于覆盖60年的2.32亿条两行根数(TLE)记录,生成860万段长度为50的序列(共4.3亿时间步),包含显式时间编码与完整均值元素状态,共11个特征。在重叠卫星上,IMM-UKF比rule_v1多发现42.6倍异常。训练一个650万参数的Transformer,两阶段训练后,在保留测试集上机动召回率达55.4%,衰减召回率达62.8%。仅对时间差特征的消融实验带来107%相对召回率提升。将模型定位为高召回率初步筛选器,用于输出候选事件供后续过滤,而非最终归因;并探讨向基于神经常微分方程的轨道世界模型演进的路径。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Detecting orbital anomalies, such as maneuvers, atmospheric decay, and attitude upsets, across the rapidly growing population of low-Earth-orbit (LEO) satellites is a prerequisite for collision avoidance, decay forecasting, and conjunction screening. The bottleneck is not modeling capacity but labels: there is no public ground-truth corpus of orbital anomalies, manual review does not scale to approximately 10^4 active satellites, and pure rule-based detectors trade recall for precision so aggressively that they are blind to most behavioral anomalies. We present a multi-tier labeling cascade that composes three weak supervision sources of increasing fidelity: a fast physics rule set (rule_v1), an Interacting Multiple Model Unscented Kalman Filter (IMM-UKF) bank, and a supplemental-element calibration step (supGP), to produce labels at a scale unavailable from any single source. Applied to 232M Two-Line Element (TLE) records spanning 60 years, the cascade yields 8.6M labeled sequences of length 50 (430M timesteps) over 11 features that include explicit time encoding and full mean-element state. On overlapping satellites, IMM-UKF surfaces 42.6x more anomalies than rule_v1 alone. We train a 6.5M-parameter Transformer in two stages, achieving a maneuver recall of 55.4% and decay recall of 62.8% on a held-out test set. An ablation on the time-delta feature alone yields a 107% relative improvement in decay recall. We frame the resulting model as a high-recall triage classifier whose role is to surface candidate events for downstream filtering, not to issue final attributions, and discuss the path toward a Neural-ODE-based orbital world model.

轨道检测弱监督时间序列航天

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