TimeClaw让时间序列模型通过探索性执行积累经验,提升预测与推理能力。
TimeClaw: A Time-Series AI Agent with Exploratory Execution Learning

- 构建四阶段循环框架,将探索过程转化为可复用的经验
- 在17个金融与气象任务中显著优于基线模型
- 适合需要高精度与上下文推理的科学分析场景
时间序列分析在金融、气象等领域的预测、监控和决策中至关重要,往往需要数值准确性与情境推理相结合。近年来,系统从专用神经预测器转向基于大语言模型和基础模型的方法,能够对时间序列输入进行推理并使用外部工具。然而,大多数系统仍以执行为中心:仅关注解决当前任务实例,而未能从探索性执行中学习。这在可验证的数值环境中尤为受限,因为多个候选执行路径和工具使用方式可能都有效,但量化表现差异显著,早期成功可能导致工具优先级坍塌,抑制进一步探索。为此,我们提出TimeClaw,一个探索性执行学习框架,通过四阶段循环(探索、比较、提炼、重注)将探索性执行转化为可复用的分层提炼经验。TimeClaw结合度量监督的探索性执行学习、任务感知的工具丢弃策略以及推理时的分层经验重注,同时保持基础模型冻结,避免在线测试时适应。在包含17个任务的MTBench对齐评估中,涵盖金融与气象预测及推理任务,TimeClaw持续优于基线。结果表明,科学系统瓶颈不仅在于执行能力,更在于如何对比、提炼并重用探索性经验。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Time series analysis underpins forecasting, monitoring, and decision making in domains such as finance and weather, where solving a task often requires both numerical accuracy and contextual reasoning. Recent progress has moved from specialized neural predictors to approaches built on LLMs and foundation models that can reason over time series inputs and use external tools. However, most such systems remain execution-centric: they focus on solving the current instance but learn little from exploratory execution. This is especially limiting in verifiable numeric settings, where multiple candidate executions and tool-use procedures may all be task-valid yet differ sharply in quantitative quality, and where early success can trigger tool-prior collapse that suppresses further exploration. To address this limitation, we present TimeClaw, an exploratory execution learning framework that turns exploratory execution into reusable hierarchical distilled experience through a four-stage loop: Explore, Compare, Distill, and Reinject. TimeClaw combines metric-supervised exploratory execution learning, task-aware tool dropout, and hierarchical distilled experience for inference-time reinjection, while keeping the base model frozen and avoiding online test-time adaptation. In an MTBench-aligned evaluation with 17 tasks that span finance and weather prediction and reasoning tasks, TimeClaw delivers consistent gains over the baselines. These results suggest that, for scientific systems, the bottleneck is not only execution-time capability, but how exploratory experience is compared, distilled, and reused.
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