将时间序列预测重构为动态调度,实现自适应多步预测
LeapTS: Rethinking Time Series Forecasting as Adaptive Multi-Horizon Scheduling

- 用分层控制器和神经微分方程构建动态预测调度框架
- 性能提升至少7.4%,推理速度比Transformer快2.6到5.3倍
- 适合需要应对非平稳数据的工业预测场景
时间序列预测在资源优化与决策支持等实际应用中至关重要。尽管架构不断进步,现有模型仍普遍将预测视为从历史到目标时点的固定映射,导致未来时间点间存在时间解耦,限制了模型随预测进程动态适应的能力。本文提出LeapTS,将时间序列预测重新建模为预测时域上的动态调度过程。具体而言,LeapTS通过:(1) 分层控制器在每一步动态选择最优预测尺度与推进长度;(2) 基于神经控制微分方程的连续时间状态演化。该机制显式地将不规则的时间动态与离散调度反馈相耦合。在真实世界与合成数据集上的广泛评估表明,LeapTS在整体性能上至少提升7.4%,同时相比代表性Transformer模型实现2.6×至5.3×的推理加速。此外,通过追踪调度轨迹,揭示了模型如何自主调整预测行为以捕捉非平稳动态。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Time series forecasting serves as an essential tool for many real-world applications, supporting tasks such as resource optimization and decision-making. Despite significant architectural advancements, most modern models still treat forecasting task as a fixed mapping from history to target horizons. This induces temporal decoupling across future time points and limits the model's ability to adapt to the evolving context as forecasting progresses. In this work, we present LeapTS, a novel framework that reformulates time series forecasting as a dynamic scheduling process over the prediction horizon. Specifically, LeapTS organizes the forecasting process into multi-level decisions using: (1) the hierarchical controller to dynamically select the optimal prediction scale and advancement length at each step, and (2) continuous-time state evolution driven by neural controlled differential equations. Within this process, the controlled update mechanism explicitly couples the irregular temporal dynamics with discrete scheduling feedback. Extensive evaluations on both real-world and synthetic datasets demonstrate that LeapTS improves overall forecasting performance by at least 7.4% while achieving a 2.6$\times$ to 5.3$\times$ inference speedup over representative Transformer-based models. Furthermore, by explicitly tracing the scheduling trajectories, we reveal how the model autonomously adapts its forecasting behavior to capture non-stationary dynamics.
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