用统计模型检测分析经济仿真模型,自动控制计算量并量化不确定性。
Statistical Model Checking of the Keynes+Schumpeter Model: A Transient Sensitivity Analysis of a Macroeconomic ABM

- 通过可重复的时序查询与置信度停止规则,自动分配仿真资源。
- 宏观金融和结构参数对失业率与GDP增长影响显著,而行为规则参数影响较弱。
- 适合需要可复现定量分析的宏观经济学仿真研究者。
基于智能体的模型(ABMs)在宏观经济学中日益普及,但其分析仍常依赖非系统的蒙特卡洛实验,不同参数配置的计算投入不均。本文展示如何通过MultiVeStA实现的统计模型检查(SMC),为真实宏观经济ABM提供严谨的分析框架,无需重写模拟器。以启发式切换的凯恩斯+熊彼特(K+S)模型为例,在600步的后预热期,对单参数扫描进行瞬态敏感性分析,考察失业率、GDP增长率及市场占有率三个可观测变量。分析基于可复用的时序查询、特定可观测变量的精度目标和基于置信度的停止规则,自动确定每种配置所需的仿真规模。结果显示:宏观金融与结构性参数扫面产生最强瞬态效应,而多个启发式规则扫面在相同精度策略下影响较弱。研究表明,SMC能支持具有实质性内容的经济ABM进行可复现、信息丰富的定量分析,并将不确定性估计与仿真成本作为报告结果的明确组成部分。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Agent-based models (ABMs) are increasingly used in macroeconomics, but their analysis still often relies on ad hoc Monte Carlo campaigns with heterogeneous statistical effort across parameter settings. We show how statistical model checking (SMC), implemented through MultiVeStA, can provide a principled analysis layer for a realistic macroeconomic ABM without rewriting the simulator in a dedicated formalism. Our case study is the heuristic-switching Keynes+Schumpeter(K+S) model, analysed hrough a transient sensitivity campaign over one-parameter sweeps, two macro observables (unemployment and GDP growth), and one auxiliary micro-level probe (market share) on the post-warmup phase of a 600-step horizon. The analysis is driven by reusable temporal queries, observable-specific precision targets, and confidence-based stopping rules that automatically determine the simulation effort required by each configuration. Results show a clear contrast across parameter families: macro-financial and structural sweeps produce the strongest transient effects, whereas several heuristic-rule sweeps remain much weaker under the same precision policy. More broadly, the paper shows that SMC can support reproducible and informative quantitative analysis of substantively rich economic ABMs, while making uncertainty estimates and simulation cost explicit parts of the reported results.
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