arXiv:2605.10717cs.LGcs.CV2026-05TPAMI

统一扩散模型同时完成轨迹补全与不确定性估计,提升真实场景应用能力。

Heteroscedastic Diffusion for Multi-Agent Trajectory Modeling

  • 用噪声负对数似然增强去噪损失,实现状态级异方差不确定性建模。
  • 在4个体育数据集上优于现有方法,轨迹补全与预测均取得领先性能。
  • 引入排序神经网络估算生成轨迹的误差概率,便于推理阶段排序选择。

多智能体轨迹建模传统上聚焦于预测任务,常忽略轨迹补全等更广泛的应用需求,而后者对修正追踪数据至关重要。现有方法通常仅预测智能体状态,缺乏状态级别的异方差不确定性估计。此外,主流多模态采样方法无法为相同先验观测下的每种生成场景提供误差概率估计,导致推理时难以排序预测结果。本文提出U2Diffine,一种统一扩散模型,可同时完成轨迹补全并提供状态级异方差不确定性估计。通过在标准去噪损失基础上加入预测噪声的负对数似然,并利用一阶泰勒展开将潜在空间不确定性传播至真实状态空间实现。还提出了U2Diff作为更快基线,避免采样过程中的梯度计算,使推理速度与纯生成扩散模型相当。后处理中集成排名神经网络(RankNN),可为每个生成模式估计误差概率,其与真实误差高度相关。实验表明,该方法在四个挑战性体育数据集(NBA、Basketball-U、Football-U、Soccer-U)上的轨迹补全与预测任务中均显著超越当前最优方案,验证了不确定性与误差概率估计的有效性。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Multi-agent trajectory modeling traditionally focuses on forecasting, often neglecting more general tasks like trajectory completion, which is essential for real-world applications such as correcting tracking data. Existing methods also generally predict agents' states without offering any state-wise measure of heteroscedastic uncertainty. Moreover, popular multi-modal sampling methods lack error probability estimates for each generated scene under the same prior observations, which makes it difficult to rank the predictions at inference time. We introduce U2Diffine, a unified diffusion model built to perform trajectory completion while simultaneously offering state-wise heteroscedastic uncertainty estimates. This is achieved by augmenting the standard denoising loss with the negative log-likelihood of the predicted noise, and then propagating the latent space uncertainty to the real state space using a first-order Taylor approximation. We also propose U2Diff, a faster baseline that avoids gradient computation during sampling. This approach significantly increases inference speed, making it as efficient as a standard generative-only diffusion model. For post-processing, we integrate a Rank Neural Network (RankNN) that enables error probability estimation for each generated mode, demonstrating strong correlation with ground truth errors. Our method outperforms state-of-the-art solutions in both trajectory completion and forecasting across four challenging sports datasets (NBA, Basketball-U, Football-U, Soccer-U), underscoring the effectiveness of our uncertainty and error probability estimation.

轨迹建模扩散模型不确定性估计多智能体

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