arXiv:2605.10823cs.LG2026-05

提出非线性可逆归一化NoRIN,让时序预测模型自动适配最佳分布修正方式。

NoRIN: Backbone-Adaptive Reversible Normalization for Time-Series Forecasting

论文配图:NoRIN: Backbone-Adaptive Reversible Normalization for Time-Series Forecasting
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 用双参数Johnson变换实现非线性可逆归一化,能调节数据尾部和偏度
  • 分离形状参数训练与主模型训练,避免参数退化到线性形式
  • 不同模型需不同归一化参数,实测效果显著优于传统方法

可逆实例归一化(RevIN)及其衍生方法已成为时序预测的标配模块,但其仅采用线性变换 $x \mapsto ax+b$,无法改变数据分布形态——重尾仍重、偏度未校正。本文提出NoRIN,基于arcsinh形式的Johnson $S_U$变换,引入两个形状参数 $(δ,\varepsilon)$ 控制尾部和偏度;当 $δ\to \infty$ 时还原为标准Z-score。训练中联合优化 $(δ,\varepsilon)$ 会快速趋向线性极限,引发‘退化问题’:预测损失对形状不敏感,主干网络通过输入单调重参数化补偿。NoRIN通过解耦策略解决此问题:$(δ,\varepsilon)$ 先用闭式Slifker-Shapiro分位数拟合初始化,再通过验证集上的贝叶斯优化精调,而内层训练保持与标准RevIN一致。在六种主干模型 × 五大数据集 × 三种预测时长(共90组配置)下,解耦优化获得的最优参数 $(δ^\star,\varepsilon^\star)$ 显著偏离线性极限,且随主干结构变化,验证了核心观点:不同模型需适配不同的归一化参数以达最佳性能。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Reversible instance normalization (RevIN) and its successors (Dish-TS, SAN, FAN) have become the de facto plug-in for time-series forecasting, yet the map they apply to each data point is strictly affine, $x \mapsto ax+b$, so they cannot reshape the underlying distribution -- heavy tails remain heavy and skewness remains uncorrected. We propose NoRIN, a non-linear reversible normalization based on the arcsinh-form Johnson $S_U$ transform with two shape parameters $(δ,\varepsilon)$ that control tailedness and skewness; the linear $Z$-score used by RevIN is recovered only in the limit $δ\to \infty$. Training $(δ,\varepsilon)$ jointly with the backbone via gradient descent reliably pushes them toward this linear limit within a few epochs -- a phenomenon we name the degeneration problem: the forecasting loss is locally indifferent to shape, and the high-capacity backbone compensates for any monotone reparameterization of its input. NoRIN escapes the degeneration by decoupling shape selection from gradient training: $(δ,\varepsilon)$ are initialized by a closed-form Slifker-Shapiro quantile fit and refined by Bayesian optimization on the validation objective, while the inner training loop is identical to standard RevIN-style training. Across six representative backbones x five real-world datasets x three prediction horizons (90 configurations), decoupled shape optimization recovers $(δ^\star,\varepsilon^\star)$ that sit systematically far from the linear limit, with values that vary in a backbone-dependent way. This empirically supports the central thesis: different backbones genuinely require different normalization parameters to reach their best performance.

时序预测归一化可逆变换自适应

Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。