将聚变等离子体模型迁移至电网故障预测,实现早期预警性能提升。
TokaMind for Power Grid: Cross-Domain Transfer from Fusion Plasma

- 用多模态变压器预训练模型跨域迁移,利用等离子体数据学得通用表征。
- 在电网同步相量数据上达到F1=0.837,早期预警中优于CNN基线(0.889 vs 0.878)。
- 提出以临界减速指标为置信度门控,提升预警可靠性,适合电网安全监控场景。
TokaMind是一种基于MAST托卡马克等离子体诊断数据预训练的多模态变压器基础模型,在聚变基准测试中表现优于基于CNN的方法。本文系统考察其在四个不同领域(工业轴承退化、NASA CMAPSS涡扇退化及两个独立电力系统同步相量测量单元数据集)中的跨域泛化能力,识别出四类促进迁移的特征。电网同步相量数据与目标域匹配度最高,而工业退化数据表明,即使对齐不完全,只要任务设计和特征构造能揭示物理退化结构,模型仍具实用性。在GESL/PNNL 500事件基准测试中,采用提供方感知评估,TokaMind在严重事件分类上取得测试F1=0.837±0.040(3次种子)。核心发现并非总分:分类难度由提供方级电网拓扑决定,而非模型容量。单窗口早期预警下,TokaMind优于CNN基线(F1=0.889 vs 0.878),但该优势随更多事件窗口出现而消失。使用临界减速(CSD)指标作为置信度门控,可在63%覆盖下将F1从0.696提升至0.750,优于所有覆盖率下的CNN基线(0.636)。这些结果首次验证了TokaMind在核聚变外领域的跨域有效性,并提出迁移性框架与多源PMU数据的新评估协议。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
TokaMind is a multi-modal transformer (MMT) foundation model pre-trained on tokamak plasma diagnostics data from MAST, where it was shown to outperform CNN-based approaches on fusion benchmarks. We investigate whether its learned representations generalize to physically distinct but structurally analogous domains. Through systematic experimentation across four domains-industrial bearing degradation, NASA CMAPSS turbofan degradation, and two independent power grid PMU datasets-we identify four transfer-favoring characteristics that help explain where TokaMind's pretrained representations are most effective. Power grid synchrophasor data matches this target-domain profile most directly, while industrial degradation datasets demonstrate that TokaMind can still yield useful performance under partial alignment, especially when task design and feature construction expose physically meaningful degradation structure. On the GESL/PNNL 500-event benchmark with provider-aware evaluation, TokaMind achieves test $\text{F1} = 0.837 \pm 0.040$ (3~seeds) for severe event classification. Our central finding, however, is not the aggregate score: classification difficulty is structurally determined by provider-level grid topology, not model capacity. In the single-window early-warning regime, TokaMind outperforms a CNN baseline (F1~0.889 vs.~0.878)--a reversal that disappears as more event windows are provided. Furthermore, Critical Slowing Down (CSD) indicators, used as a confidence gate rather than a classification label, improve F1 from 0.696 to 0.750 at 63% coverage-outperforming the CNN baseline (0.636) at any coverage level. These results establish the first cross-domain validation of TokaMind outside nuclear fusion and propose a transferability framework and revised evaluation protocol for multi-source PMU datasets.
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