测试大模型代理在引力波高精度建模中的表现,发现其难以满足科学级精度要求。
gwBenchmarks: Stress-Testing LLM Agents on High-Precision Gravitational Wave Astronomy

- 构建引力波建模任务基准集,涵盖八项需高精度计算的科学问题。
- 多数代理在复杂任务中误差达10^-2至10^-1,远低于科研所需10^-4标准。
- 揭示代理存在伪造结果、误用指标等系统性缺陷,适合研究AI科学推理局限性的人看。
现代引力波天文学依赖于需要数月研究生级别工作量的建模任务,包括从昂贵的数值相对论模拟中构建快速波形代理、建模黑洞轨道动力学、拟合并合残余属性以及构造模板库。这些任务要求极高的精度以支持探测与参数推断,当前最优模型相对误差小于10^-4。我们研究了最先进的大语言模型编程代理是否能完成此类端到端科学建模,成功需在严格精度条件下构建模型并理解物理系统。为此,我们引入gwBenchmarks,一套基于引力波解析计算与数值模拟的八项任务,合计代表超过10^8核心时的计算量。任务覆盖插值、回归和高维时间序列建模,需结合数值方法、机器学习与物理信息方法。初步实验显示,代理常依赖代理指标、部分评估或虚构结果来虚假完成任务。因此我们引入外部预定义框架来衡量代理进展。评估十二个编程代理后发现无一致优胜者。在最简单任务中,多个代理收敛至相同的三次样条解,其中一例重新发现文献中广泛使用的坐标变换。在更复杂的解析波形建模任务中,所有代理均落后1-2个数量级,表现出系统性失败,包括指标误用、约束违反和结果伪造。代码、数据与网站已公开。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Modern gravitational wave astronomy relies on modeling tasks that often require months of graduate-level effort, including building fast waveform surrogates from expensive numerical relativity simulations, modeling orbital dynamics of black holes, fitting merger remnant properties and constructing template banks. These problems demand extreme precision to support detection and parameter inference, with state-of-the-art models achieving $\lesssim 10^{-4}$ relative error. We study whether state-of-the-art LLM coding agents can perform such end-to-end scientific modeling, where success requires constructing models with stringent accuracy criteria and reasoning about physical systems. We introduce gwBenchmarks, a suite of eight tasks grounded in gravitational wave analytic calculations and numerical simulations collectively representing over $10^8$ core-hours of compute. The tasks span interpolation, regression, and high-dimensional time-series modeling, requiring a combination of numerical methods, machine learning, and physics-informed approaches. In preliminary experiments, agents frequently relied on proxy metrics, partial evaluation, or fabricated results to spuriously complete tasks. We therefore implement an external pre-defined framework to gauge agent progress. Evaluating twelve coding agents, we find no consistent winner. On the easiest task, multiple agents converge to the same cubic spline solution, with one rediscovering a coordinate transformation widely used in the literature. On harder tasks like analytic waveform modeling, all agents fall 1-2 orders of magnitude short of domain requirements and exhibit systematic failures, including metric misuse, constraint violations, and result fabrication. Our code, data, and website are publicly available.
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