arXiv:2605.11394stat.MLcs.AI2026-05

给冻结模型加个轻量层,能自动捕捉残差空间结构并估计不确定性。

Spatial Adapter: Structured Spatial Decomposition and Closed-Form Covariance for Frozen Predictors

论文配图:Spatial Adapter: Structured Spatial Decomposition and Closed-Form Covariance for Frozen Predictors
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 通过可训练的正交基和样本得分,以低秩方式建模残差空间分布。
  • 在天气数据上实现精准的空间预测,有效秩由数据自适应确定。
  • 适合需要快速部署且要量化不确定性的空间预测场景。

我们提出 Spatial Adapter,一种参数高效的后处理层,可为任意冻结的前阶段预测器提供其残差场的结构化空间表示及诱导的闭式空间协方差。该适配器作为残差上的级联第二阶段运行,通过可处理的小批量 ADMM 过程联合学习空间正则化的正交基和每样本得分,不修改任何第一阶段参数。由于第一阶段参数被冻结,适配器无需重训练主干网络;其作用是提供残差场的压缩分布摘要。平滑性、稀疏性和正交性共同将通用低秩分解转化为可识别的空间表示,其诱导的残差协方差具备闭式低秩加噪声估计器;有效秩由谱阈值数据自适应决定,名义秩 K 仅为优化上限。该协方差支持未观测位置的克里金风格空间预测,并可插值用于不确定性量化。在合成数据、Weather2K 空间留出预测以及 GWHD 像素块网格的基迁移性诊断中,适配器与从线性模型到深度时空和视觉主干的冻结第一阶段均能恢复残差空间结构;新增表示仅使用少于 K(N+T) 个参数,并搭配紧凑的残差-趋势网络。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

We present the Spatial Adapter, a parameter-efficient post-hoc layer that equips any frozen first-stage predictor with a structured spatial representation of its residual field and an induced closed-form spatial covariance. The adapter operates as a cascade second stage on residuals, jointly learning a spatially regularized orthonormal basis and per-sample scores via a tractable mini-batch ADMM procedure, without modifying any first-stage parameter. Because the first-stage parameters are frozen, the adapter does not retrain the backbone; its role is to supply a compressed distributional summary of the residual field. Smoothness, sparsity, and orthogonality together turn a generic low-rank factorization into an identifiable spatial representation whose induced residual covariance admits a closed-form low-rank-plus-noise estimator; the effective rank is determined data-adaptively by spectral thresholding, while the nominal rank K is an optimization-side upper bound only. This covariance enables kriging-style spatial prediction at unobserved locations, with plug-in uncertainty quantification as a secondary downstream use. Across synthetic data, Weather2K for spatial-holdout prediction, and GWHD patch grids as a basis-transferability diagnostic, the adapter recovers residual spatial structure when paired with frozen first stages from linear models to deep spatiotemporal and vision backbones; the added representation uses fewer than K(N+T) parameters alongside a compact residual-trend network.

空间建模参数高效不确定性量化

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