arXiv:2605.11569cs.AIcs.LG2026-05

用双时间维度建模航班预订动态,提升航司载客率预测精度。

Dual-Temporal LSTM with Hybrid Attention for Airline Passenger Load Factor Forecasting: Integrating Intra-Flight and Inter-Flight Booking Dynamics

论文配图:Dual-Temporal LSTM with Hybrid Attention for Airline Passenger Load Factor Forecasting: Integrating Intra-Flight and Inter-Flight Booking Dynamics
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 构建水平(单航班)与垂直(跨航班)双时间序列并行处理框架
  • 在孟加拉国航空数据上实现2.8167的平均绝对误差和0.9495的R²
  • 适用于不同航线类型,已实际部署于航司运营系统

精准的短期需求预测对航空公司收益管理至关重要,但现有系统常因将预订数据仅视为单一时间维度而失效——要么是特定航班的预订累积,要么是同路线的历史预订模式。这种单维视角忽略了另一时间流的信息,且直接预测乘客数量在机队配置变更时易产生操作脆弱性。本研究解决上述问题,提出一种融合自注意力、交叉注意力与混合注意力的双流LSTM框架,同时处理两种互补输入序列:水平序列捕捉临近起飞日的单航班预订积累;垂直序列捕捉历史航班在固定提前天数的预订模式。多种双流架构变体(含拼接、残差、门控融合策略)被开发并评估。基于孟加拉国国家航空公司Biman Bangladesh Airlines (BBA)的真实预订数据实验表明,该混合模型达到2.8167的均方绝对误差与0.9495的决定系数($R^{2}$),优于单流基线、树模型及三种先前双LSTM架构。在四类航线组合(国内/国际、直飞/中转、高/低频、短程/中程/远程)上的验证显示模型具有跨运营场景泛化能力。目前该方法已正式集成至BBA运营体系。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Accurate short-term demand forecasting is crucial to airline revenue management, yet most existing systems fail to meet this need because current models treat booking data as a single temporal dimension, either the accumulation of bookings for a specific flight or the historical booking profile of the same route. This unidimensional view discards information carried by the other temporal stream and forecasting absolute passenger counts introduces a further operational fragility when change in planned aircraft type alters total seat capacity. This study addresses both limitations. A dual-stream Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) integrated with attention framework is proposed that simultaneously processes two complementary input sequences: a horizontal sequence capturing intra-flight booking accumulation over the days preceding departure, and a vertical sequence capturing inter-flight booking patterns at fixed days-before-departure offsets across historical flights. Multiple dual-stream architectural variants, combining self-attention, cross-attention, and hybrid attention with concatenation, residual, and gated fusion strategies, are developed and evaluated. Experiments on real-world reservation data from the national airline of Bangladesh, Biman Bangladesh Airlines (BBA), demonstrate that the proposed hybrid model achieves a Mean Absolute Error of 2.8167 and a coefficient of determination ($R^{2}$) of 0.9495, outperforming single-stream baselines, tree-based models, and three prior dual-LSTM architectures applied to the same data. Validation across four flight category pairs; domestic versus international, direct versus transit, high versus low frequency, and short versus mid versus long haul confirms that the model generalizes across operationally diverse route types. Biman Bangladesh Airlines (BBA) has officially integrated this methodology into its operations.

载客率预测双时间序列LSTM航空收益管理

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