用AI生成云层分布,提升气候模型对云辐射效应的模拟精度。
Assessment of cloud and associated radiation fields from a GAN stochastic cloud subcolumn generator
- 采用CVAE-GAN与U-Net构建两阶段生成器,学习真实云层结构。
- 生成56组随机子列,使云重叠分布更接近真实观测,误差减半。
- 显著降低全球平均云辐射效应偏差,适合改进气候模拟中的云-辐射耦合。
现代地球系统模型因水平分辨率远大于典型云特征,需依赖随机子列生成器来表示次网格尺度的云垂直与水平变异性。传统基于物理的生成器常采用指数-随机去相关等解析重叠模式,难以捕捉非连续云层间的复杂反相关行为。本研究提出一种针对GEOS大气模型的新型两阶段机器学习子列生成器,结合条件变分自编码器与生成对抗网络(CVAE-GAN)及U-Net架构,训练于融合的CloudSat-CALIPSO高度分辨云光学厚度数据集。生成56组随机子列,表征云存在概率与光学厚度廓线。相较于经典Räisänen方法,该方法准确再现双峰云重叠分布,显著降低网格平均统计偏差,并使ISCCP风格云顶压强与光学厚度联合直方图的均方根误差减半。深度生成模型带来的改进,使离线辐射传输计算更准确,全球平均短波地气顶云辐射效应偏差降低至原来的三分之一。若该生成器能在CPU上加速,将为减少云-辐射界面的结构性误差提供可行路径。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Modern Earth System Models (ESMs) operate on horizontal scales far larger than typical cloud features, requiring stochastic subcolumn generators to represent subgrid horizontal and vertical cloud variability. Traditional physically-based generators often rely on analytical cloud overlap paradigms, such as exponential-random decorrelation, which can struggle to capture the complex, anti-correlated behavior of non-contiguous cloud layers. In this study, we introduce a novel two-stage machine learning subcolumn generator for the GEOS atmospheric model, utilizing a Conditional Variational Autoencoder combined with a Generative Adversarial Network (CVAE-GAN) and a U-Net architecture. Trained on a merged CloudSat-CALIPSO height-resolved cloud optical depth dataset, the ML generator creates 56 stochastic subcolumns representing cloud occurrence and optical depth profiles. Evaluated against the established Räisänen, the ML approach accurately reproduces bimodal cloud overlap distributions, significantly reduces biases in grid-mean statistics, and halves the root-mean-square error in ISCCP-style cloud-top pressure and optical thickness joint histograms. The improvements brought by our deep generative models translate into more accurate offline radiative transfer calculations, reducing the global-mean shortwave top-of-atmosphere cloud radiative effect bias by a factor of three. Provided that the generator can be accelerated on CPUs, this offers a practical pathway to reduce structural errors at the cloud-radiation interface.
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