用少量互动预测陌生AI决策,提升谈判效率。
Predicting Decisions of AI Agents from Limited Interaction through Text-Tabular Modeling

- 结合文本与结构化数据建模,利用过往互动作为适应样本。
- 在K=16时,预测准确率提升4%,议价报价误差降低14%。
- 适合研究AI协作、自动化谈判的工程师与研究人员。
AI代理在自然语言中与未知对手进行协商和交易:例如买家机器人面对未知卖家,或采购助手与供应商谈判。在此类互动中,对方的LLM、提示词、控制逻辑及规则回退机制均不可见,而每次决策都可能带来经济影响。我们探讨代理能否从少量交互中预测未知对手的下一步决策。为避免真实世界日志干扰,我们在受控的讨价还价和谈判游戏中研究此问题,将其建模为面向目标的自适应文本-表格预测任务:每个决策点是一个表格行,包含结构化游戏状态、报价历史和对话内容;同时在提示中提供该目标代理的前K场已知游戏作为标注适应示例。模型基于表格基础模型构建,用游戏状态特征和基于LLM的文本表示来表征行,并引入‘小冻结LLM作为观察者’(LLM-as-Observer)作为额外表示:一个小的冻结LLM读取决策时刻的状态与对话,其答案被丢弃,但隐藏状态转化为决策导向特征,使LLM充当编码器而非直接预测器。在13个前沿LLM代理上训练,在91个保留的结构化代理上测试,完整模型优于直接使用LLM提示和仅用游戏+文本特征的基线。在该表格模型中,观察者特征贡献显著:当K=16时,响应预测的AUC提升约4个百分点,议价报价预测误差降低14%。结果表明,将对手预测建模为面向目标的自适应文本-表格任务可实现有效适应,且隐藏的LLM表示能揭示直接提示无法暴露的决策相关信号。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
AI agents negotiate and transact in natural language with unfamiliar counterparts: a buyer bot facing an unknown seller, or a procurement assistant negotiating with a supplier. In such interactions, the counterpart's LLM, prompts, control logic, and rule-based fallbacks are hidden, while each decision can have monetary consequences. We ask whether an agent can predict an unfamiliar counterpart's next decision from a few interactions. To avoid real-world logging confounds, we study this problem in controlled bargaining and negotiation games, formulating it as target-adaptive text-tabular prediction: each decision point is a table row combining structured game state, offer history, and dialogue, while $K$ previous games of the same target agent, i.e., the counterpart being modeled, are provided in the prompt as labeled adaptation examples. Our model is built on a tabular foundation model that represents rows using game-state features and LLM-based text representations, and adds LLM-as-Observer as an additional representation: a small frozen LLM reads the decision-time state and dialogue; its answer is discarded, and its hidden state becomes a decision-oriented feature, making the LLM an encoder rather than a direct few-shot predictor. Training on 13 frontier-LLM agents and testing on 91 held-out scaffolded agents, the full model outperforms direct LLM-as-Predictor prompting and game+text features baselines. Within this tabular model, Observer features contribute beyond the other feature schemes: at $K=16$, they improve response-prediction AUC by about 4 points across both tasks and reduce bargaining offer-prediction error by 14%. These results show that formulating counterpart prediction as a target-adaptive text-tabular task enables effective adaptation, and that hidden LLM representations expose decision-relevant signals that direct prompting does not surface.
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