arXiv:2605.12764q-fin.MFcs.LG2026-05

用物理约束生成利率曲线,避免套利错误并提升预测精度。

Yield Curves Dynamics Using Variational Autoencoders Under No-arbitrage

论文配图:Yield Curves Dynamics Using Variational Autoencoders Under No-arbitrage
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 分两阶段建模:先提取利率曲面特征,再用神经SDE动态演化。
  • 跨多国主权利率预测误差仅6.58基点,显著优于经典模型。
  • 适合金融风控与量化交易,尤其在极端经济环境下表现优异。

本文提出一种融合物理规律的生成框架,解决深度学习在固定收益建模中统计灵活性与理论严谨性之间的根本冲突。我们发现,标准生成模型和无约束统计外推在不同宏观经济环境下预测收益率曲线时会出现“流形坍缩”和严重套利问题。为此,我们设计两阶段架构:首先,采用带动态水平注入的学生分布条件变分自编码器(CVAEsT+LS)提取稳健、重尾的收益率曲线流形,有效分离宏观经济形态动态与绝对利率水平;其次,潜变量动态由连续时间神经随机微分方程(SDE)控制,并严格施加无套利偏微分方程(PDE)惩罚。在美、英、日三国主权利率数据上实证表明,该协同方法大幅降低样本外预测误差,实现6.58基点的均十期均方根误差(Mean Tenor RMSE),成功克服经典HJM模型在极端环境下的大规模平行漂移与零下限违规问题。通过相空间向量场分析,进一步验证了模型在无监督宏观经济状态识别和高质量连续时间情景生成方面的卓越能力。本研究为收益率曲线建模提供了一种高度可扩展、数学严谨的演化引擎。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

This paper introduces a physics-informed generative framework that resolves the fundamental conflict between the statistical flexibility of deep learning and the rigorous theoretical constraints of fixed-income modeling. We demonstrate that standard generative models and unconstrained statistical extrapolations suffer from "manifold collapse" and severe arbitrage violations when forecasting term structures across diverse macroeconomic regimes. To overcome this, we propose a two-stage architecture. First, a Student-t Conditional Variational Autoencoder with Dynamic Level Injection (CVAEsT+LS) extracts a robust, heavy-tailed term structure manifold, effectively decoupling macroeconomic shape dynamics from absolute base rates. Second, the latent dynamic evolution is governed by a continuous-time Neural Stochastic Differential Equation (SDE) strictly penalized by a No-Arbitrage Partial Differential Equation (PDE). Empirical results across multiple sovereign currencies (USD, GBP, JPY) confirm that our synergistic approach drastically reduces out-of-sample forecasting errors -- achieving an exceptional 6.58 bps Mean Tenor RMSE -- and successfully overcomes the massive parallel drift and zero-lower-bound violations exhibited by the classical HJM model in extreme environments. Furthermore, through phase space vector field analysis, we demonstrate the model's superior capability in unsupervised macroeconomic regime detection and high-quality continuous-time scenario generation. Ultimately, this research provides a highly scalable, mathematically sound evolutionary engine for term structure modeling.

利率建模生成模型无套利金融工程

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