用深度模型融合卫星数据,实现城市地温高时空分辨率预测。
Spatiotemporal downscaling and nowcasting of urban land surface temperatures with deep neural networks

- 用U-Net将3km/15分钟的卫星数据提升到1km/15分钟分辨率。
- 地温预测误差仅1.92°C,未来75分钟预报误差低至1.15°C。
- 适合城市气候监测、环境预警等需要实时地温数据的场景。
地表温度(LST)是城市气候与生态研究的关键变量。现有卫星产品在空间或时间分辨率上存在权衡。本文融合静止轨道与极轨卫星观测,实现1 km空间分辨率、15分钟时间间隔的高时空分辨率地表温度场。采用U-Net模型将SEVIRI/MSG(3 km,15分钟)数据映射至与Terra/Aqua MODIS(1 km,每日4次过境)时空对齐的数据,训练覆盖人口超百万的欧洲大城市,测试集均方根误差为1.92°C,平均偏差接近零(0.01°C)。进一步构建基于ConvLSTM的短期预报模型,在15至75分钟预报时长下,均方根误差为0.57至1.15°C,偏差在-0.1至0.14°C之间。独立MODIS过境验证表明模型表现稳健。该高时空分辨率地表温度预报模型可直接用于业务化卫星监测。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Land Surface Temperature (LST) is a key variable for various applications, such as urban climate and ecology studies. Yet, existing satellite-derived LST products provide either high spatial or high temporal resolution, resulting in a fundamental trade-off between the two. To address this trade-off, we combine observations from a geostationary and a polar orbiting satellite and provide LST fields at high spatial and high temporal resolution (1 km at 15-min intervals). We demonstrate their application for intraday forecasting of LSTs. To estimate LST fields at high spatiotemporal resolution, a U-Net model is trained to map LST fields from SEVIRI/MSG (3 km and 15 min resolution) to LST fields from Terra/Aqua MODIS (1 km, 4 overpasses per day) that are collocated in space and time. The presented model has been trained on LSTs across large European cities with a population exceeding 1 million inhabitants, and achieves an RMSE = $1.92$°C and near-zero bias MBE = $0.01$°C on the hold-out test set. As a second step, we present an LST nowcasting model based on ConvLSTM architecture, trained across downscaled LST fields with forecast lead times of 15 to 75 minutes. The nowcasting model outperforms a persistence and a Climatological Rolling Median benchmarks, with RMSEs of $0.57$ to $1.15$°C for the considered lead times and biases ranging from $-0.1$ to $0.14$°C. An additional validation conducted against independent MODIS overpasses confirms robust performance. Our LST forecast model at high spatiotemporal resolution is directly applicable to operational satellite-based LST monitoring.
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