构建首个统一的公司与建筑碳排放预测基准,助力气候智能决策。
GHGbench: A Unified Multi-Entity, Multi-Task Benchmark for Carbon Emission Prediction

- 整合公司与建筑级碳排放数据,统一多源异构信息为标准格式。
- 发现建筑碳排放预测难度高于公司级,跨区域迁移性能骤降。
- 遥感多模态数据在表格模型失效处表现突出,适合城市气候研究者。
当前企业级碳排放预测数据集在访问性、规模、粒度和评估方式上碎片化严重。本文提出 GHGbench,一个面向公司与建筑层级的开源碳排放预测数据集与基准。公司赛道包含超过32,000条公司-年记录,覆盖12,000多家企业,涵盖范围1+2及范围3排放,以及财务与行业信号;建筑赛道将来自13个公开来源的491,591条建筑-年记录,统一至26个大都市区(10个美国、15个澳大利亚、1个新加坡)的单一模式,包含气候协变量与多模态遥感嵌入。GHGbench定义了分布内与跨区域/城市迁移作为主要任务,时间留出与短时预测作为补充评估;基线模型包括梯度提升树、表格基础模型、MLP、FT-Transformer与多模态融合,辅以大语言模型面板,均在多种子配对自助法测试中评估。三大核心发现:(i) 建筑碳排放结构上更难预测;(ii) 分布内到分布外的差距远超模型间差异,且表格基础模型首次在多城市建筑排放任务上以统计显著优势超越调优的树模型;(iii) 遥感多模态嵌入在表格模型失效处提供关键增益。该基准还揭示了灾难性城市迁移与行业因子查找上限等系统性失败模式。代码与重建方案可在 GHGbench 获取。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Open datasets and benchmarks for entity-level carbon-emission prediction remain fragmented across access, scale, granularity, and evaluation. We introduce GHGbench, an open dataset and benchmark for company- and building-level greenhouse-gas prediction. The company track contains 32,000+ company-year records from 12,000+ firms with Scope 1+2 and Scope 3 disclosures and financial/sectoral signals; the building track harmonises 491,591 building-year records from 13 open sources into a single schema across 26 metropolitan areas (10 U.S., 15 Australian, 1 Singaporean), with climate covariates and multimodal remote-sensing embeddings. GHGbench defines canonical splits with in-distribution and cross-region/city transfer as primary tasks and temporal hold-out plus short-horizon forecasting as supplementary appendix evidence; headline baselines span gradient-boosted trees, a tabular foundation model, MLP, FT-Transformer, and multimodal fusion, with an LLM panel as auxiliary, all evaluated under multi-seed paired-bootstrap tests. Three benchmark-level findings emerge: (i) building emissions are structurally harder than company emissions; (ii) the in-distribution to out-of-distribution gap dwarfs any within-model gap across both the company track and the building track, and a tabular foundation model is, to our knowledge, the first baseline to open a paired-bootstrap-significant gap over tuned trees on a multi-city building-emissions task; (iii) multimodal remote-sensing embeddings help precisely where tabular generalisation breaks. GHGbench also exposes catastrophic city transfer and the sector-factor lookup ceiling as systematic failure modes. Code and reconstruction recipes are available at GHGbench.
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