用神经微分方程建模洪水,10秒完成城市级洪水预测。
Toward AI-Driven Digital Twins for Metropolitan Floods: A Conditional Latent Dynamics Network Surrogate of the Shallow Water Equations

- 基于降雨和地形条件的隐空间微分网络,实现快速洪水模拟。
- 96小时洪水预测仅需29秒,速度提升115倍,误差减半。
- 适用于不规则流域,可直接查询测站位置,适合城市防洪决策。
AI驱动的洪水数字孪生需要快速水动力代理模型以支持集合预报与观测融合。即使使用GPU加速的二维浅水方程(SWE)求解器,在420万活动网格单元的城市流域(如30米分辨率的德斯普雷恩斯河流域)上,每次96小时运行仍需约55分钟,难以在原始分辨率下实用。本文提出条件隐空间动力学网络(CLDNet):一种由降雨驱动的低维隐空间神经微分方程,搭配基于坐标的解码器,结合静态地形(高程、坡度、曼宁糙率)重建任意点的水深与流量。点对点解码使内存与网格规模解耦,原生支持不规则流域,可在单节点完成城市尺度训练,并直接查询实测站点坐标而无需栅格对齐。我们在合成的25万网格德州基准数据集及新的德斯普雷恩斯流域案例(114场真实降雨的Stage IV数据)上评估,参考模拟器经美国地质调查局(USGS)测站验证,平均水面高程的纳什-萨特克利夫效率为0.57–0.94。相较于无条件基线,CLDNet将相对均方根误差大致减半;在德州基准上优于常规网格的VAE-ConvLSTM与FNO基线(均依赖笛卡尔网格,无法用于不规则德斯普雷恩斯流域);在0.5米淹没阈值下达到约86%的关键成功指数;且96小时全流域预测仅耗时约29秒,实现约115倍加速。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
AI-driven flood digital twins demand fast hydrodynamic surrogates for ensemble forecasting and observation assimilation. Yet even GPU-accelerated two-dimensional shallow water equation (SWE) solvers still require $\sim 55$ minutes per $96$-hour run on a $\sim 4.2$-million-active-cell metropolitan basin (the Des~Plaines River basin at $30\,\mathrm{m}$ resolution), making such workloads prohibitive at native resolution. We present the Conditional Latent Dynamics Network (CLDNet): a low-dimensional latent neural ODE driven by rainfall, paired with a coordinate-based decoder conditioned on static terrain (elevation, slope, Manning roughness) that reconstructs depth and discharge at arbitrary query points. Pointwise decoding decouples memory from grid size and handles irregular watersheds natively, enabling metropolitan-scale training on a single compute node and direct queries at exact gauge coordinates without raster snapping. We evaluate CLDNet on a synthetic $250{,}000$-cell Texas benchmark and on a new Des~Plaines case study of $114$ real-rainfall Stage~IV storms whose reference simulator we validate against United States Geological Survey (USGS) gauges at the April~2013 flood-of-record (Nash--Sutcliffe efficiency $0.57$--$0.94$ on mean-recentered water-surface elevation). CLDNet roughly halves the relative root-mean-squared error of an unconditional baseline, outperforms regular-grid VAE--ConvLSTM and FNO baselines on the Texas benchmark (both presuppose a Cartesian grid and do not apply to the irregular Des~Plaines watershed), reaches a critical success index of $\approx 86\%$ at the $0.5\,\mathrm{m}$ inundation threshold, and produces a full $96$-hour basin-wide forecast in $\sim 29$ seconds -- a $\sim 115\times$ speedup.
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