用智能手表数据融合心率、运动和睡眠信号,提升精神分裂症复发预测准确率。
Uncertainty-Driven Anomaly Detection for Psychotic Relapse Using Smartwatches: Forecasting and Multi-Task Learning Fusion

- 通过预测心率变化并检测偏差,识别异常行为。
- 融合多任务信号,利用不确定性估计提升对可穿戴设备波动的鲁棒性。
- 适合精神健康监测与可穿戴医疗研究者参考。
数字表型技术实现行为与生理的持续被动监测,为精神分裂症复发的早期预警提供新范式。本文提出两种基于智能手表的每日复发检测框架:第一种预测心脏动态,以预测值与实测值偏差作为异常指标;第二种采用多任务学习,融合睡眠、运动与心率信号,学习时间感知嵌入并预测测量时刻。两个流程均使用Transformer编码器,输出日级异常评分,基于多层感知机集成的预测不确定性估计,增强对真实世界可穿戴设备差异的鲁棒性。尽管各自表现优异,但两者捕捉互补的生理特征。因此,我们提出晚期融合策略,将两架构的异常信号整合为统一决策分数。在第二届e-Prevention Grand Challenge数据集上,融合模型相较夺冠基线实现8%相对提升。大量消融实验表明,整合心率、运动与睡眠等多元数字表型,对真实场景中高保真复发检测至关重要。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Digital phenotyping enables continuous passive monitoring of behavior and physiology, offering a promising paradigm for early detection of psychotic relapse. In this work, we develop and systematically study two smartwatch-based frameworks for daily relapse detection. The first forecasts cardiac dynamics and flags deviations between predicted and observed features as indicators of abnormality. The second adopts a multi-task formulation that fuses sleep with motion and cardiac-derived signals, learning time-aware embeddings and predicting measurement timing. Both pipelines use Transformer encoders and output a daily anomaly score, derived from predictive uncertainty estimated via an ensemble of multilayer perceptrons to improve robustness to real-world wearable variability. While each framework independently demonstrates strong predictive power, we show that they capture complementary physiological signatures. Consequently, we propose a late-fusion strategy that synergistically combines the anomaly signals from both architectures into a unified decision score. We benchmark our methodology on the 2nd e-Prevention Grand Challenge dataset, where our fused model achieves a 8% relative improvement over the competition-winning baseline. Our results, supported by extensive ablation studies, suggest that the integration of diverse digital phenotypes, cardiac, motion, and sleep, is essential for the high-fidelity detection of psychotic relapse in real-world settings.
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