揭示了随机优化中后悔值与协方差的精确关系,可大幅加速计算。
Regret Equals Covariance: A Closed-Form Characterization for Stochastic Optimization

- 发现后悔值等于参数与最优决策的协方差,残差在特定条件下可精确为零。
- 在线性规划和无约束二次规划中,后悔值可直接由协方差计算,无需模拟。
- 仅需一次数据遍历即可快速估计,适合大规模优化与金融组合等场景。
后悔值是算法决策中不确定性带来的代价。传统量化方法依赖样本平均近似(SAA),复杂度达 $\/mathcal{O}(Bn^{2}d^{3})$,其中 $B$ 为场景数,$n$ 为变量数,$d$ 为约束数。本文证明任意随机优化问题的期望后悔值可精确分解为:$\\mathrm{Regret}(c) = \\mathrm{Cov}(c, π^{*}(c)) + R(c)$,其中 $c$ 为不确定参数向量,$π^{*}(c)$ 为最优决策,$R(c)$ 为残差项。在线性规划与无约束二次规划(包括经典马科维茨投资组合问题)中,$R(c)=0$ 精确成立,故 $\\mathrm{Regret}(c) = \\mathrm{Cov}(c, π^{*}(c))$ 无需近似。当有历史成本-决策对 $\\{(c_i, π^*(c_i))\\ ext{}}$ 时,协方差可在 $\\mathcal{O}(nd^{2})$ 时间内估算,远快于 SAA。该方法只需单次数据遍历,并推导了浓度界、中心极限定理及渐近无偏残差估计器。实验验证了合成线性规划、二次规划及整数规划实例,以及基于十年 CRSP 股票数据的滚动窗口投资组合实验。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Regret is the cost of uncertainty in algorithmic decision-making. Quantifying regret typically requires computationally expensive simulation via Sample Average Approximation (SAA), with complexity $\mathcal{O}(Bn^{2}d^{3})$ in the number of scenarios $B$, variables $n$, and constraints $d$. % This paper proves that expected regret in any stochastic optimization problem admits the exact decomposition % \begin{equation*} \mathrm{Regret}(c) = \mathrm{Cov}(c,\,π^{*}(c)) + R(c), \end{equation*} % where $c$ is the vector of uncertain parameters, $π^{*}(c)$ is the optimal decision, and $R(c)$ is a residual whose magnitude we bound explicitly under Lipschitz, smooth, and strongly convex conditions. % For linear programs and unconstrained quadratic programs, including the classical Markowitz portfolio problem, we prove $R(c)=0$ exactly, so that $\mathrm{Regret}(c) = \mathrm{Cov}(c,π^{*}(c))$ holds without approximation. % When historical cost-decision pairs $\{(c_i, π^*(c_i))\}$ are available, the covariance can be estimated in $\mathcal{O}(nd^{2})$ time, which is orders of magnitude faster than SAA. The estimation is performed by a single pass through the data. % We derive concentration bounds, a central limit theorem, and an asymptotically unbiased residual estimator, and we validate all results on synthetic LP, QP, and integer programming instances and on a rolling-window portfolio experiment using ten years of CRSP equity data.
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