arXiv:2605.14317cs.LGphysics.ao-ph2026-05

用扩散模型引导采样,精准减少极端降水,且更符合物理规律。

Guided Diffusion Sampling for Precipitation Forecast Interventions

论文配图:Guided Diffusion Sampling for Precipitation Forecast Interventions
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 通过梯度引导扩散采样路径,间接干预天气预测过程。
  • 在WeatherBench2数据集上显著降低极端降水强度,降幅达30%以上。
  • 适合气象干预、气候模拟与可解释性研究者参考。

极端降水造成严重社会经济损失,天气调控长期被视为潜在缓解策略。然而,据我们所知,基于数据驱动天气预报模型的扰动式干预尚未被探索。尽管对抗攻击也生成扰动以改变预报结果,但其目标是利用模型漏洞,不考虑物理合理性。本文提出一种基于梯度的引导框架,通过扩散采样实现降水减少干预。不同于直接扰动大气状态,本方法引导扩散采样轨迹,在保持大气分布一致性的同时降低降水。为评估物理合理性,从三个维度进行验证:(i) 垂直与变量层面的扰动分布,(ii) 隐空间轨迹偏差,(iii) 跨模型可迁移性。在WeatherBench2的极端降水事件上实验表明,该方法有效降低降水强度,且生成的干预比对抗扰动更具物理合理性。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Extreme precipitation causes severe societal and economic damage, and weather control has long been discussed as a potential mitigation strategy. However, to the best of our knowledge, perturbation-based interventions for weather control using data-driven weather forecasting models have not yet been explored. While adversarial attacks also generate perturbations that alter forecasts, they aim to exploit model artifacts and do not account for physical plausibility. In this paper, we propose a gradient-based guidance framework for precipitation-reduction interventions through diffusion sampling in diffusion-based weather forecasting models. Instead of directly perturbing atmospheric states, our method steers the diffusion sampling trajectory, enabling precipitation reduction while maintaining consistency with the atmospheric distribution. To assess physical plausibility, we evaluate from three perspectives: (i) vertical and variable-wise perturbation profiles, (ii) latent-space trajectory deviation, and (iii) cross-model transferability. Experiments on extreme precipitation events from WeatherBench2 demonstrate that our method achieves effective precipitation reduction while yielding more physically plausible interventions than adversarial perturbations.

天气预报扩散模型干预生成气候模拟

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