用多智能体框架融合文本与时间序列,提升真实场景预测能力
Nexus : An Agentic Framework for Time Series Forecasting

- 分阶段处理宏观波动、微观变化与上下文信息
- 在房产与股市数据上超越主流时序模型
- 可解释推理过程,适合需要透明决策的场景
时间序列预测不仅依赖数值外推,还需结合新闻等非结构化上下文信息。现有时序基础模型(TSFMs)擅长数值模式,却忽略现实文本信号;大语言模型(LLMs)虽能零样本预测,但跨领域表现不一且缺乏上下文对齐。为此,我们提出Nexus——一种多智能体预测框架,将预测分解为:分离宏观与微观时间波动,有上下文时整合信息,再合成最终预测。该设计使系统能灵活应对季节性或事件驱动的波动,无需外部统计基准或单一提示。实验表明,当前一代LLMs具备远超以往认知的内在预测能力,关键在于数值与上下文推理的组织方式。在覆盖Zillow房地产指标与高波动股票市场的数据集上(严格超出LLM知识截止时间),Nexus持续达到或超过先进TSFMs及强基线模型表现。此外,其生成的高质量推理轨迹清晰展示每项预测的根本驱动因素。结果表明,真实世界预测本质上是超越序列建模的智能体式推理任务。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Time series forecasting is not just numerical extrapolation, but often requires reasoning with unstructured contextual data such as news or events. While specialized Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) excel at forecasting based on numerical patterns, they remain unaware to real-world textual signals. Conversely, while LLMs are emerging as zero-shot forecasters, their performance remains uneven across domains and contextual grounding. To bridge this gap, we introduce Nexus, a multi-agent forecasting framework that decomposes prediction into specialized stages: isolating macro-level and micro-level temporal fluctuations, and integrating contextual information when available before synthesizing a final forecast. This decomposition enables Nexus to adapt from seasonal signals to volatile, event-driven information without relying on external statistical anchors or monolithic prompting. We show that current-generation LLMs possess substantially stronger intrinsic forecasting ability than previously recognized, depending critically on how numerical and contextual reasoning are organized. Evaluated on data strictly succeeding LLM knowledge cutoffs spanning Zillow real estate metrics and volatile stock market equities, Nexus consistently matches or outperforms state-of-the-art TSFMs and strong LLM baselines. Beyond numerical accuracy, Nexus produces high-quality reasoning traces that explicitly show the fundamental drivers behind each forecast. Our results establish that real-world forecasting is an agentic reasoning problem extending well beyond only sequence modeling.
Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。