无需重训即可融合新卫星数据,提升降水估计精度与效率。
A plug-and-play generative framework for multi-satellite precipitation estimation

- 用生成模型构建降水先验,通过独立分支接入不同传感器。
- 在微波区域降水估计误差降低22.6%,成功指数提升40.3%。
- 适合需快速集成新卫星数据的气象监测与灾害预警场景。
可靠的降水监测对防灾减灾、水资源管理和农业决策至关重要。多源卫星观测,尤其是静止红外与被动微波数据的结合,已成为主要降水探测手段。传统多源降水估计算法计算效率低,多数深度学习方法在引入新传感器时需重新训练整个模型,灵活性差。本文提出PRISMA(基于生成建模的多模态卫星降水反演),一种即插即用的潜在生成框架。PRISMA从IMERG Final数据中学习无条件降水先验,并通过独立训练的传感器特异性条件分支进行约束,实现新观测源的无缝接入而无需重训生成主干。应用于FY-4B AGRI红外与GPM GMI微波数据,在微波覆盖区域内,相较于仅使用红外数据,关键成功指数最高提升40.3%,均方根误差降低22.6%,同时提升概率预报能力,平均推理时间约37秒。在中国范围内的雨量计独立验证显示结果稳定增益;台风个例分析表明,微波条件能有效恢复眼墙和螺旋雨带结构,风暴中心平均绝对误差最多降低42.3%。PRISMA为多传感器降水估计提供了可扩展且高效的解决方案。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Reliable precipitation monitoring is essential for disaster risk reduction, water resources management, and agricultural decision-making. Multi-source satellite observations, particularly the combination of geostationary infrared and passive microwave measurements, have become a primary means of precipitation detection. Traditional multi-source satellite precipitation estimation methods remain computationally inefficient, and many deep learning methods lack the flexibility to incorporate new sensors without retraining the full model. Here we introduce PRISMA (Precipitation Inference from Satellite Modalities via generAtive modeling), a plug-and-play latent generative framework for multi-sensor precipitation estimation. PRISMA learns an unconditional precipitation prior from IMERG Final fields and constrains it through independently trained, sensor-specific conditional branches, allowing new observation sources to be incorporated without retraining the generative backbone. Applied to FY-4B AGRI infrared and GPM GMI microwave observations, PRISMA improves Critical Success Index by up to 40.3% and reduces root-mean-square error by 22.6% relative to infrared-only estimation within microwave swaths, while also improving probabilistic skill and maintaining an average inference time of about 37 s. Independent rain-gauge validation across China confirms consistent gains, and typhoon case studies show that microwave conditioning restores eyewall and spiral rainband structures, reducing storm-core mean absolute error by up to 42.3%. PRISMA thus provides an extensible and efficient framework for multi-sensor precipitation estimation.
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