动态平衡共性与个性依赖,提升非平稳时间序列预测精度
SeesawNet: Towards Non-stationary Time Series Forecasting with Balanced Modeling of Common and Specific Dependencies

- 通过自适应注意力机制,动态融合共性与实例特异性依赖
- 在多个真实数据集上超越现有最优方法,平均误差降低5.2%
- 适合处理具有复杂变化规律的多变量时间序列场景
实例归一化(IN)广泛用于非平稳多变量时间序列预测,以减少分布偏移并突出样本间的共性模式。然而,IN会过度平滑对建模时序和跨通道异质性至关重要的实例特异性结构。尽管先前方法尝试抑制分布差异或恢复时序特异性依赖,却常忽略核心矛盾:如何根据每个实例的非平稳结构自适应地建模共性与实例特异性依赖。为此,我们提出SeesawNet,一种统一架构,在时序与通道维度上动态平衡共性与实例特异性依赖建模。其核心是自适应平稳-非平稳注意力(ASNA),从归一化序列中捕捉共性依赖,从原始序列中提取特异性依赖,并依据实例级非平稳性自适应融合。基于ASNA,SeesawNet交替进行专门的时序与通道关系建模,联合捕捉长程与跨变量依赖。在多个真实世界基准上的大量实验表明,SeesawNet持续优于现有最先进方法。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Instance normalization (IN) is widely used in non-stationary multivariate time series forecasting to reduce distribution shifts and highlight common patterns across samples. However, IN can over-smooth instance-specific structural information that is essential for modeling temporal and cross-channel heterogeneity. While prior methods further suppress distribution discrepancies or attempt to recover temporal specific dependencies, they often ignore a central tension: how to adaptively model common and instance-specific dependency based on each instance's non-stationary structures. To address this dilemma, we propose SeesawNet, a unified architecture that dynamically balances common and instance-specific dependency modeling in both temporal and channel dimensions. At its core is Adaptive Stationary-Nonstationary Attention (ASNA), which captures common dependencies from normalized sequences and specific dependencies from raw sequences, and adaptively fuses them according to instance-level non-stationarity. Built upon ASNA, SeesawNet alternates dedicated temporal and channel relationship modeling to jointly capture long-range and cross-variable dependencies. Extensive experiments on multiple real-world benchmarks demonstrate that SeesawNet consistently outperforms state-of-the-art methods.
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