arXiv:2605.14588cs.LG2026-05

发现自迭代模型中隐藏的性能衰退,提前预警并自动干预。

Silent Collapse in Recursive Learning Systems

  • 通过监测预测熵、表示多样性等轨迹特征,识别潜在崩溃
  • 三类早期信号可提前多代预警,而传统指标仍稳定
  • 无需真实数据即可实时调节学习强度,适合隐私场景

自迭代学习——模型在自身生成的数据上训练——在大语言模型、自主代理和自监督系统中日益普遍。然而,标准评估指标(损失、困惑度、准确率)常无法在性能不可逆恶化前察觉内部退化。本文揭示一种名为‘沉默崩溃’的现象:在广泛自迭代条件下,模型内部分布——预测熵、表征多样性与尾部覆盖——会逐步收缩,而传统指标却保持稳定或上升。该崩溃并非突然发生,其出现前有三个轨迹级先兆:(1) 锚点熵收缩,(2) 表征漂移冻结,(3) 尾部覆盖退化。这些信号在标准验证指标恶化前数代即显现,可实现早期预警。基于此,我们提出MTR(监控-信任-调控)框架,一个轻量级元认知循环,通过监测轨迹统计量、估计慢时标信任变量,并自适应调节有效学习强度。MTR可在无原始真实数据情况下提供早期预警并主动防止沉默崩溃,尤其适用于原始数据不可用、污染或私有的场景。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Recursive learning -- where models are trained on data generated by previous versions of themselves -- is increasingly common in large language models, autonomous agents, and self-supervised systems. However, standard performance metrics (loss, perplexity, accuracy) often fail to detect internal degradation before it becomes irreversible. Here we identify a phenomenon we call silent collapse: under broad recursive conditions, model internal distributions -- predictive entropy, representational diversity, and tail coverage -- progressively contract even as conventional metrics appear stable or improving. We discover that silent collapse is not abrupt. Its onset is reliably preceded by three trajectory-level precursors: (1) contraction of anchor entropy, (2) freezing of representation drift, and (3) erosion of tail coverage. These signals manifest multiple generations before any degradation in standard validation metrics, enabling early warning. Based on these precursors, we propose the MTR (Monitor--Trust--Regulator) framework, a lightweight metacognitive loop that monitors trajectory statistics, estimates a slow-timescale trust variable, and adaptively modulates the effective learning intensity. MTR provides early warning and actively prevents silent collapse without requiring access to pristine real data -- a critical advantage when original data is unavailable, contaminated, or private.

自迭代学习模型退化早期预警元认知

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