arXiv:2605.14606cs.CV2026-05

MambaRain融合Mamba与注意力机制,提升0-3小时降水预报精度。

MambaRain: Multi-Scale Mamba-Attention Framework for 0-3 Hour Precipitation Nowcasting

论文配图:MambaRain: Multi-Scale Mamba-Attention Framework for 0-3 Hour Precipitation Nowcasting
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 用Mamba处理长时序依赖,用注意力捕捉空间相关性
  • 在2-3小时预报上准确率显著提升,优于现有方法
  • 适合需要精准短临预报的气象与防灾领域

0-3小时降水短临预报对防灾减灾和决策支持至关重要,但现有确定性方法多局限于0-2小时,超过90分钟后性能急剧下降,主要因难以捕捉雷达观测中的长程时空依赖。为此,我们提出MambaRain,一种多尺度编码器-解码器架构,将Mamba的线性复杂度长时序建模能力与自注意力机制结合,显式捕获降水场的空间相关性。核心创新在于混合设计:Mamba模块通过选择性状态空间机制高效建模跨长时间序列的全局动态,而自注意力模块则专门刻画空间相关性,弥补Mamba在序列处理中缺失的空间建模能力。两者互补实现全面的时空表征学习,使有效预报时长扩展至2-3小时,并大幅提高精度。此外,引入谱损失函数,减轻混沌降水系统中的模糊伪影,保留关键细粒度运动细节。实验表明,MambaRain在0-3小时预报任务中显著优于现有确定性方法,尤其在2-3小时预测区间表现突出。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Accurate precipitation nowcasting over extended horizons (0-3 hours) is essential for disaster mitigation and operational decision-making, yet remains a critical challenge in the field. Existing deterministic approaches are predominantly constrained to shorter prediction windows (0-2 hours), exhibiting severe performance degradation beyond 90 minutes owing to their inherent difficulty in capturing long-range spatiotemporal dependencies from radar-derived observations. To address these fundamental limitations, we propose MambaRain, a novel multi-scale encoder-decoder architecture that synergistically integrates Mamba's linear-complexity long-range temporal modeling with self-attention mechanisms for explicit spatial correlation capture. The core innovation lies in a hybrid design paradigm wherein Mamba blocks leverage selective state space mechanisms to model global temporal dynamics across extended sequences with computational efficiency, while self-attention modules explicitly characterize spatial correlations within precipitation fields - a capability inherently absent in Mamba's sequential processing paradigm. This complementary synergy enables comprehensive spatiotemporal representation learning, effectively extending the viable forecasting horizon to 2-3 hours with substantial accuracy improvements. Furthermore, we introduce a spectral loss formulation to mitigate blurring artifacts characteristic of chaotic precipitation systems, thereby preserving fine-scale motion details critical for nowcasting accuracy. Experimental validation demonstrates that MambaRain substantially outperforms existing deterministic methodologies in 0-3 hour nowcasting tasks, with particularly pronounced performance gains in the challenging 2-3 hour prediction range.

降水预报时空模型Mamba气象AI

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