arXiv:2605.15363cs.LGeess.SP2026-05中稿 · publication in the…

用统一概率模型预测基站余量资源块,支持动态频谱共享。

PRB-RUPFormer: A Recursive Unified Probabilistic Transformer for Residual PRB Forecasting

论文配图:PRB-RUPFormer: A Recursive Unified Probabilistic Transformer for Residual PRB Forecasting
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 构建递归统一概率Transformer,融合多载波时序与季节特征。
  • 一日至七日预测的中位数MAE低于0.05,命中率超80%。
  • 输出置信区间,适合需要风险感知的无线网络决策场景。

准确预测残余物理资源块(PRB)对主动网络切片部署、节能运行及频谱感知决策至关重要,其中残余PRB可作为短中期频谱可用性的实用代理。现有方法仅依赖历史PRB值,按载波或扇区独立训练,难以捕捉跨载波依赖关系,且无法衡量预测不确定性。点预测在高波动流量下不足以支撑鲁棒控制。本文提出PRB-RUPFormer,一种用于残余PRB预测的递归统一概率Transformer。该模型通过时间、季节和载波感知嵌入联合处理多变量KPI时间序列,在递归推演中保持指标间时间耦合性,稳定长时预测。单一共享模型在所有基站载波与扇区上训练,高效学习联合流量动态,计算开销低。通过分位数预测区间捕获预测不确定性,提供未来PRB可用性的置信度估计。基于美国多个地点六月商用LTE数据评估显示,一日至七日递归预测的中位数平均绝对误差(MAE)低于0.05,命中率高于0.80。这些概率预测可直接支持动态载波激活、拥塞规避与主动频谱共享等频谱感知无线接入网(RAN)功能,适用于动态频谱接入场景。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Accurate forecasting of residual Physical Resource Blocks (PRBs) is critical for proactive network slice provisioning, energy-efficient operation, and spectrum-aware decision making in cellular systems, where residual PRBs serve as a practical proxy for short- and medium-term spectrum availability. Existing PRB prediction methods typically rely only on historical PRB values and are trained independently per carrier or sector, limiting their ability to capture cross-carrier dependencies and providing no measure of forecast uncertainty. Moreover, point forecasts alone are insufficient for robust spectrum-aware control under highly variable traffic conditions. This paper proposes PRB-RUPFormer, a recursive unified probabilistic Transformer for residual PRB forecasting. The proposed model jointly processes multivariate KPI time series using temporal, seasonal, and carrier-aware embeddings, preserving inter-metric temporal coupling during recursive rollout and stabilizing long-horizon forecasting. A single shared model is trained across all carriers and sectors of an eNB, enabling efficient learning of joint traffic dynamics with low computational overhead. Forecast uncertainty is captured through quantile-based prediction intervals, providing confidence-aware estimates of future PRB availability. Evaluations on six months of commercial LTE network data from multiple U.S. locations demonstrate median MAE below 0.05 and hit probabilities above 0.80 for both one-day and seven-day recursive forecasts. These probabilistic predictions directly support spectrum-aware RAN functions such as dynamic carrier activation, congestion avoidance, and proactive spectrum sharing, making the proposed framework well-suited for dynamic spectrum access scenarios.

频谱预测概率建模5G RAN资源调度

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