用神经网络学习动态条件下的保守不确定性边界,提升安全关键场景的决策可靠性。
Learning Context-conditioned Gaussian Overbounds for Convolution-Based Uncertainty Propagation
- 通过训练神经网络生成上下文感知的高斯过界边界(均值与尺度)
- 在有限分位数网格上保证保守性,假设成立时连续尾部也保守
- 适用于自动驾驶、航空等需动态特征依赖不确定性的场景
不确定性量化在安全关键领域(如自动驾驶、航空、金融、医疗)至关重要,决策必须依赖保守边界而非点估计。现有预测级区间(如分位数回归、共形预测、方差网络或贝叶斯模型)通常不具备可组合性:两个变量的区间相加未必构成其和的有效区间或保持覆盖率。在航空领域,高斯过界用保守高斯分布替代复杂误差分布,使保守性在线性操作中传递。但传统方法为全局固定,常过度保守且难以适应特征相关的误差。本文提出统一学习框架,训练神经网络生成上下文感知的高斯过界边界(均值与尺度),在有限分位数网格上保证可证明保守性;在三个显式正则性假设下,可在认证区间上实现连续尾部保守性。过界损失在选定分位数处强制保守性,并以Wasserstein风格项惩罚分布距离。所学边界支持在强制网格上的保守线性组合与卷积分析,在假设成立时也可扩展至认证区间,且冗余度低于传统方法。提供离散到连续保守性及紧支撑目标正则性的分析,验证于合成数据与真实数据集(包括多路径、电离层、对流层残差误差)。在各场景下,方法在保持网格上保守性的同时获得更紧的边界。该框架与模态无关,适用于需动态环境中保守、特征依赖不确定性估计的学习系统。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Uncertainty quantification is essential in safety-critical settings--from autonomous driving to aviation, finance, and health--where decisions must rely on conservative bounds rather than point estimates. Predictor-level intervals (e.g., from quantile regression, conformal prediction, variance networks, or Bayesian models) generally do not compose: adding two per-variable intervals need not yield a valid interval for their sum or preserve coverage. In aviation, Gaussian overbounding replaces complex error distributions with a conservative Gaussian whose tails dominate the truth, so conservatism propagates through linear operations. Yet classical overbounds are global, often overly conservative, and hard to adapt to feature-conditioned errors. We propose a unified learning framework that trains neural networks to produce context-aware Gaussian overbounds--mean and scale--with provable conservatism on a finite quantile grid and, under three explicit regularity assumptions, continuous-tail conservatism on a certified interval. Our overbounding loss enforces conservativeness at selected quantiles while penalizing distributional distance with a Wasserstein-style term. The learned bounds support conservative linear-combination and convolution analysis on the enforced grid, and on the certified interval when assumptions hold, while being less redundant than traditional methods. We provide a scoped analysis of discrete-to-continuous conservatism and compact-domain objective regularity, and validate on synthetic data and real-world datasets, including multipath, ionospheric, and tropospheric residual errors. Across these settings, the method yields tighter bounds while maintaining conservatism on the enforced grid and in experiments. The framework is modality-agnostic and applicable to learning systems that require conservative, feature-conditioned uncertainty estimates in dynamic environments.
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