arXiv:2605.15937cs.LG2026-05

用历史航迹增强模型,提升全球海运多步停靠港预测准确率。

A Retrieval-Enhanced Transformer for Multi-Step Port-of-Call Sequence Prediction in Global Liner Shipping

论文配图:A Retrieval-Enhanced Transformer for Multi-Step Port-of-Call Sequence Prediction in Global Liner Shipping
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 从全球海事数据库检索相似航迹,补足数据稀疏段信息。
  • 首站预测准确率达72.3%,三步平均准确率61.4%,优于基线10%以上。
  • 适合航运调度、物流规划等需要长期路径预判的场景。

精准的多步停靠港序列预测对战术资源配置和物流效率至关重要。现有方法受限于不可靠的航行计划及AIS数据仅能提供临近港口信息的局限。本文提出一种连通性约束与检索增强(CCRE)深度学习框架。受检索增强生成启发,CCRE引入检索增强的历史编码器,从全球海事数据库中查询上下文相关的航行先例,将其转化为候选级语义表征,弥补长尾航线的数据稀疏问题并解决路径歧义。结合基于Transformer的轨迹编码器,通过交叉注意力实现自适应‘中间融合’,动态调整预测权重:短期依赖实时运动数据,长期依赖历史背景。为保证序列一致性,采用带计划采样和Gumbel-Softmax松弛的自回归Transformer解码器进行联合序列生成,缓解误差累积;拓扑掩码严格约束海上网络可达性,排除操作上不可行路线。在全局数据集上的评估显示,CCRE首站预测准确率为72.3%,三步平均准确率为61.4%,优于CatBoost和LSTM基线平均12.6%和11.3%。案例研究进一步验证了模型在不同国际贸易航线中的可扩展性与复杂路由模式捕捉能力。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Accurate multi-step port-of-call sequence prediction is vital for tactical resource orchestration and logistical efficiency. However, existing methods struggle with unreliable voyage schedules and the inability of AIS data to provide visibility beyond the immediate next port. To address this, this study proposes a Connectivity-Constrained and Retrieval-Enhanced (CCRE) deep learning framework. Inspired by Retrieval-Augmented Generation, CCRE introduces a retrieval-enhanced historical encoder that queries a global maritime database for contextually similar navigational precedents. Transforming these scenarios into candidate-level semantic representations compensates for data sparsity in long-tail routes and resolves routing ambiguities. Integrating this with a Transformer-based trajectory encoder, the architecture executes adaptive "middle fusion" via cross-attention. This dynamically shifts predictive reliance from real-time kinematics for short-term accuracy to historical context for long-term strategic stability. To ensure sequence-level coherence, forecasting is formulated as a joint sequence generation problem using an autoregressive Transformer decoder enriched with Scheduled Sampling and Gumbel-Softmax relaxation. This mitigates error accumulation, while topology masks strictly enforce maritime network reachability to eliminate operationally infeasible routes. Evaluated on a global dataset, CCRE achieves a 72.3% first-destination accuracy and a 61.4% average three-step accuracy, outperforming baselines like CatBoost and LSTM by average margins of 12.6% and 11.3%, respectively. Case studies further corroborate the model's scalability and ability to capture complex routing patterns across diverse international trade lanes.

航运预测序列生成检索增强Transformer

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