发现社交媒体中表达不确定的帖子更易引发回复，跨语言跨领域成立。
Linguistic Uncertainty and Reply Engagement on X: A Cross-Domain Replication of the Uncertainty-Reply Asymmetry
- 用词典法识别帖子中的语言不确定性，约三分之一被标记为不确定。
- 不确定帖子平均回复量比确定帖子高82%，回复增长显著超过点赞和转发。
- 该现象在英语政策、通胀和选举话题中复现，适合关注社交互动机制的研究者。
语言不确定性在社交媒体中普遍存在，但其与互动行为的关系在不同语言和主题间尚不明确。本文基于2026年4月三天内收集的2,258条英文帖子（涉及美联储政策、通货膨胀和选举政治），检验先前阿拉伯语研究中发现的‘不确定性-回复不对称’现象是否可在更广泛语境中复现。采用词典法对帖子进行不确定性分类，约三分之一被识别为不确定。结果显示，不确定帖子平均回复量比确定帖子高出82%，转发和点赞增幅较小，复现了以往观察到的不对称互动模式。回归分析证实不确定性与回复数存在正向且显著关联（η = 0.126, p = 0.011），相当于预期回复量提升约13%，总互动量虽呈正向但关联较弱。结果表明，语言不确定性系统性增强对话参与度，可能是一种跨语言、跨领域的普遍交互机制。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Linguistic uncertainty is common in social media, but its relationship with engagement remains unclear across languages and topics. Using 2,258 English-language posts on Federal Reserve policy, inflation, and electoral politics collected over three days in April 2026, we test whether the Uncertainty-Reply Asymmetry observed in prior Arabic-language research replicates in a broader context. Posts are classified using a lexicon-based uncertainty framework, with approximately one-third identified as uncertain. Uncertain posts receive 82% more replies on average than certain posts, with smaller increases in reposts and likes, replicating the asymmetric engagement pattern observed in prior work. Regression results confirm a positive and statistically significant association between uncertainty and replies (\b{eta} = 0.126, p = 0.011), equivalent to ~13% higher expected reply engagement, while total engagement shows a positive but weaker association. These findings suggest that linguistic uncertainty systematically increases conversational engagement and may reflect a general interactional mechanism across languages and domains.
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