用双层混沌融合图网络,精准预测股市波动区间,提升风险决策能力。
Bi-Level Chaotic Fusion Based Graph Convolutional Network for Stock Market Prediction Interval
- 构建时空图网络,分层学习价格中心与波动区间,融合资产关联性。
- 在2016-2026年纳斯达克43家公司数据上,覆盖率达96.6%,区间最窄。
- 适配市场动态变化,适合金融风控、量化交易等需不确定性评估场景。
金融市场预测具有固有不确定性,但现有深度学习方法多依赖点预测,仅提供单一数值估计,无法衡量置信度,难以支持风险敏感型决策。为此,本文提出一种基于双层混沌融合的图卷积网络(Bi-Level Chaotic Fusion GCN),用于生成预测区间。模型通过独立非线性变换分别预测区间中心与宽度,并引入波动率感知门控机制,使预测适应不同市场状态。时间依赖性通过嵌入图结构并序列建模捕捉。采用下界-上界估计(LUBE)目标进行训练。实验基于2016至2026年印度国家证券交易所(NSE)8大行业43家龙头公司的数据,结果显著优于基线模型(LSTM、GRU、GCN、HGNN):Winkler得分最低(0.0778),预测区间平均宽度最小(PIAW = 0.1407),覆盖率最高(PICP = 96.6%),所有差异经Diebold-Mariano检验均显著(p < 0.001)。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Financial market forecasting is inherently uncertain, yet most deep learning approaches rely on point predictions that provide only single-value estimates without quantifying uncertainty. Such predictions are insufficient for risk-aware decision-making, as they fail to capture the range of possible outcomes and the associated confidence of forecasts.The problem can be solved using prediction intervals, which allow obtaining an upper and lower bound for the prediction, thus enabling uncertainty representation in the model. Yet, the current methods tend to disregard relationships between assets or cannot simultaneously ensure good calibration and sharpness of the resulting intervals in dynamically changing market regimes. In our work, we propose a spatio-temporal graph-based approach with a bi-level chaotic fusion technique to solve this problem. Our model uses separate nonlinear transformation functions to estimate the interval center and width. Additionally, a volatility-aware gating mechanism is used to make predictions dependent on the regime in which the market operates. Temporal dependencies are considered by embedding graph structures and sequentially modeling them. Training is conducted according to a Lower-Upper Bound Estimation (LUBE) objective. Our experimental results show significant improvements compared to existing baselines (LSTM, GRU, GCN, HGNN) when applied to data from 2016 to 2026 with 43 leading companies in eight sectors of the NSE. It provides the lowest Winkler score (0.0778), tightest prediction intervals (PIAW = 0.1407), and highest coverage (PICP = 96.6%), with all differences statistically significant (p < 0.001) according to the Diebold-Mariano test.
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