arXiv:2605.16380cs.LGcs.AI2026-05

用Mamba建模不规则临床数据,自动判断观测可靠性并融合多尺度时间信息。

ReTAMamba: Reliability-Aware Temporal Aggregation with Mamba for Irregular Clinical Time Series Prediction

论文配图:ReTAMamba: Reliability-Aware Temporal Aggregation with Mamba for Irregular Clinical Time Series Prediction
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 将临床数据转为时变标记序列,动态评估观测可靠性。
  • 在三个数据集上AUPRC提升7.5%~10.2%,尤其对心率等动态信号更敏感。
  • 适合需要精准时间依赖建模的医疗预测任务,如危重症预警。

临床时间序列因采样不规则、缺失值频繁及变量观测模式异质,难以用传统方法建模。现有方法虽使用观测掩码和时间间隔信息,但未能持续捕捉历史观测的可靠性衰减,也未在统一时序上下文中一致组织多分辨率信息。为此,本文提出可靠性感知的时间聚合模型ReTAMamba:将临床时间序列重构为时变标记序列,从缺失情况与时间流逝中估计观测可靠性,并在区间摘要中加入统计描述符。通过时序编织整合短长期信息,以预算化标记路由器控制序列长度同时保留关键摘要。在MIMIC-IV、eICU和PhysioNet 2012上的实验表明,ReTAMamba在强基线上平均相对提升AUPRC达7.51%、7.80%和10.15%。对eICU的群体与患者级分析显示,心率、血压等动态信号的平均衰减速率比实验室变量高24.3%。结果表明,有效预测不规则临床时间序列需同时建模测量内容、观测时机与信息新鲜度。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Clinical time-series data are difficult to model with methods designed for regular sequences because they exhibit irregular sampling, frequent missing values, and heterogeneous observation patterns across variables. Existing approaches commonly use observation masks and time-gap information, but they do not continuously capture the decaying reliability of past observations or consistently organize multi-resolution information within a coherent temporal context during aggregation. To address these limitations, we propose Reliability-aware Temporal Aggregation with Mamba (ReTAMamba), which reconstructs clinical time series as time-variable token sequences, estimates observation reliability from missingness and elapsed time, and augments interval summaries with statistical descriptors. Chronological Weaving is used to integrate short- and long-term temporal information within a coherent temporal context, and a budgeted token router is applied to constrain sequence length while preserving informative summaries. Experiments on MIMIC-IV, eICU, and PhysioNet 2012 show that ReTAMamba consistently improves AUPRC over strong baselines, with average relative gains of 7.51%, 7.80%, and 10.15%, respectively. Cohort-level and patient-level analyses on eICU further showed that the learned mean decay for more dynamic signals, such as heart rate and blood pressure, was 24.3% larger than that for relatively static signals, such as laboratory test variables. These findings suggest that effective prediction in irregular clinical time series requires modeling not only what was measured, but also when and how it was observed, including information freshness and observation timeliness.

临床时间序列Mamba可靠性建模

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