arXiv:2605.17086econ.GNcs.AI2026-05

自动化影响因国家条件而异,揭示了全球自动化差异的深层原因。

Global Automation Atlas

  • 用大语言模型分析124国1.8万项任务,结合国家条件评估自动化暴露度。
  • 自动化暴露率从3.3%到61.6%,收入越高越普遍,但组内差异显著。
  • 低收入国家以规则型替代为主,高收入国家更依赖AI增强与复杂执行。

自动化可能替代或补充劳动力,但其影响在不同经济体间并非恒定。现有暴露度衡量方法通常为任务或职业分配固定评分,并通过就业结构捕捉跨国差异。本文表明,可行自动化取决于任务内容与国家层面条件的共同作用。我们利用大语言模型对124个经济体中的18,797项工作任务进行分类,评估其自动化暴露度、劳动力边际、技术路径及人工智能相关性。经构建匹配的指标与既有暴露指数、实际工作中的ChatGPT使用、AI准备度及企业采纳报告高度相关。任务暴露率介于3.3%至61.6%之间,随收入上升而增加,但在同收入群体内仍存在显著异质性。低收入经济体更集中于规则驱动和劳动力替代型自动化;随着发展,物理执行、规划与推理路径,以及劳动力增强型AI应用逐渐凸显。国家条件会改变职业暴露排名,尤其在低收入经济体中。结合就业数据发现,女性更多从事易被替代的职业。机器学习假设生成识别出数字记录、资本设备、本地判断力、信任型市场与数据整合是导致暴露差异的关键因素。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Automation can displace or complement labour, but this need not be constant across economies. Existing exposure measures typically assign fixed scores to tasks or occupations and capture cross-country variation through employment structure. Here we show that feasible automation depends jointly on task content and country-level conditions. We use a large language model to classify 18,797 work tasks in 124 economies by exposure, labour margin, technology channel and artificial-intelligence materiality. Construct-matched components of the measure correlate strongly with established exposure indices, observed work-related ChatGPT use, AI preparedness and firm-reported adoption. The exposed share of tasks ranges from 3.3% to 61.6%, rises with income yet remains heterogeneous within income groups. Lower-income economies are more concentrated in rule-based and labour-substituting forms of automation, whereas physical execution, planning and inference channels, together with labour-augmenting uses of artificial intelligence, become more prominent with development. Country conditioning changes occupation exposure rankings, especially in lower-income economies. Combined with employment data, we find that women are disproportionately employed in occupations with substitution-facing exposure. Machine-learning hypothesis generation identifies digital records, capital equipment, local judgement, trust-based markets and data integration as conditions associated with exposure differences.

自动化人工智能经济差异劳动市场

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