提出抗降雨位移的地质灾害预警模型,提升预报不准时的预测精度。
Learning Displacement-Robust Representations for Landslide Early Warning under Rainfall Forecast Uncertainty

- 通过模拟降雨场位移,学习对位移不变的特征表示。
- 在2年日本数据上精度比顶尖模型高37%。
- 适合需要应对降雨预报误差的灾害预警系统使用。
降雨诱发的滑坡在全球范围内因气候变化加剧极端降雨而日益严重。为争取充分疏散时间,实时灾害监测的滑坡早期预警系统(LEWS)需结合观测降雨与短期降雨预报,估算近未来滑坡风险。尽管近年来统计和深度学习方法提升了预测性能,但多数假设降雨输入准确。实际运行中,滑坡预测依赖降雨预报,其常存在降雨场的空间位移,导致局部累积降雨变化,降低预测准确性。为此,本文提出一种对降雨场位移鲁棒的新型LEWS。核心思想是学习从降雨和地形数据中提取在降雨场运动位移下仍稳定的潜在表示,实现可靠地理空间数据融合以估计滑坡风险。滑坡预测模型采用雨量运动感知对比学习(RMCL),引入时间相关降雨场扰动,模拟预报引起的降雨驱动时空数据流中的位移。实验基于日本19个区域两年的降雨与地形数据进行,结果表明,所提系统相比最先进基线最高提升37%精度。这证明将降雨建模为移动空间场,并在学习中处理降雨场位移,能显著提升运行中短期滑坡预测的可靠性。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Rainfall-induced landslides pose a growing risk worldwide as climate change intensifies extreme rainfall events. To provide sufficient evacuation time, landslide early warning systems (LEWS) for real-time disaster monitoring must estimate near-future landslide risk by integrating observed rainfall with short-term rainfall forecasts from spatio-temporal environmental data streams. Although recent landslide prediction methods have improved predictive performance using statistical and deep learning approaches, most assume accurate rainfall inputs. In operational settings, however, landslide prediction relies on rainfall forecasts, which often contain spatial displacement of rainfall fields due to forecasting uncertainties. Such displacement can alter local accumulated rainfall and degrade prediction accuracy. To address this challenge, we propose a novel LEWS robust to rainfall field displacement. The key idea is to learn latent representations from rainfall and terrain data that remain stable under displacement in rainfall field motion, enabling reliable geospatial data integration for landslide risk estimation. The landslide prediction model is trained using Rainfall-Motion-Aware Contrastive Learning (RMCL), which introduces temporally correlated rainfall field perturbations to emulate forecast-induced displacement in rainfall-driven spatio-temporal environmental data streams. Experiments were conducted using two years of rainfall and terrain data across Japan, covering 19 regions with landslide events. The proposed system achieved up to 37% higher precision than state-of-the-art baselines. These results demonstrate that modeling rainfall as a moving spatial field and addressing rainfall field displacement during learning significantly improve the reliability of short-term landslide prediction in operational early warning systems.
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