arXiv:2605.17426cs.MAcs.LG2026-05中稿 · the 27th IEEE Inte…

用数字孪生模拟游客流动,预测交通措施影响。

Human-Flow Digital Twin for Predicting the Effects of Mobility Introduction on Visitor Circulation

论文配图:Human-Flow Digital Twin for Predicting the Effects of Mobility Introduction on Visitor Circulation
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 构建多智能体数字孪生,基于真实人流数据训练决策模型。
  • 引入交通措施后,空间人流分布相似度达0.7以上。
  • 适合城市规划与景区管理,评估交通方案效果。

我们提出一种利用人流动态数字孪生预测交通措施影响的框架。该数字孪生采用多智能体仿真器,模拟游客根据当前位置、景点吸引力等因素选择目的地的行为。通过分析干预前的人流数据、景点间距离、景点吸引力及客流数据,训练每个智能体的决策模型。该模型以游客当前状态和环境信息为输入,输出下一目的地。将交通措施转化为点间距离或吸引力变化,可在仿真中重现引入后的客流,并量化游客数量与流动模式的变化。在日本和歌山城公园的实测数据上验证,使用多层感知机决策模型时,空间人口分布的余弦相似度超过0.7,证明该方法能有效复现交通引入带来的流动变化。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

We propose a framework for predicting the effects of mobility introduction measures using a human-flow digital twin. This digital twin incorporates a multi-agent simulator that can represent how visitors choose destinations depending on factors such as their current location and the attractiveness of spots. We extract data on how visitors selected destinations with respect to measured pre-intervention human-flow data, inter-spot distances, spot attractiveness, and travel volumes, and use these data to train each agent's decision model of this simulator. The trained decision model is a function that takes a visitor's current state and surrounding environmental information as input and outputs which spot the visitor will move toward next. By expressing mobility introduction measures as changes to inter-point distances or to spot attractiveness, the framework can reproduce human flows with mobility introduction in the multi-agent simulator and thereby quantify effects such as changes in visitor counts and circulation. We evaluated the proposed method using human-flow data measured with and without introducing mobility within Wakayama Castle Park in Japan. When reproducing flows with mobility introduction using a multi-layer perceptron decision model, the cosine similarity of the spatial population distribution exceeded 0.7, confirming that the approach can replicate the flow changes caused by the mobility introduction.

数字孪生人流预测多智能体景区优化

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