arXiv:2605.17568cs.LG2026-05被引 1

提出可解释的事件交互建模方法,同时捕捉影响关系与时间衰减。

Structured Neural Marked Point Processes for Interpretable Event Interaction Modeling

论文配图:Structured Neural Marked Point Processes for Interpretable Event Interaction Modeling
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 构建带符号的类型间影响网络与延迟感知时序网络
  • 能识别激发、抑制、中性三类跨类别影响关系
  • 适合需要理解事件因果关系的场景,如金融或医疗预警

多类别事件流广泛存在于现实应用中,如何在准确预测的同时揭示结构化、可解释的事件间依赖关系,仍是核心挑战。现有神经点过程模型虽表达能力强,但以黑箱方式编码事件交互,难以显式发现结构化依赖。本文提出结构化神经标记点过程(SNMPP),在保持高建模灵活性的同时,实现事件级与类别级关系的显式发现。模型采用乘积形式的神经影响核,包含事件类型间的带符号交互网络和延迟感知的单调时序网络。该设计能明确刻画跨类别影响拓扑——包括激发、抑制与中性关系——并灵活捕捉多样化的衰减模式及潜在影响延迟。为提升学习效率,我们设计了分层蒙特卡洛估计器用于随机训练。在合成数据与真实世界基准数据集上的大量实验验证了该方法在揭示结构化关系与实现强预测性能方面的有效性。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Multi-class event streams arise in numerous real-world applications, where uncovering structured, interpretable inter-event relationships, together with accurate prediction, remains a central challenge. Existing neural point process models are highly expressive but encode event interactions in a black-box manner, preventing explicit discovery of structured dependencies. In this paper, we propose a structured neural marked point process (SNMPP) that achieves high modeling flexibility while enabling explicit event-wise and class-wise relationship discovery from data. Our model constructs a product-form neural influence kernel composed of a signed interaction network over event types and a delay-aware monotonic temporal network. This design enables explicit characterization of inter-class influence topology -- including excitation, inhibition, and neutrality -- while flexibly capturing diverse temporal decay patterns and potential influence delays. For efficient learning, we develop a stratified Monte Carlo estimator for stochastic training. Extensive experiments on synthetic and real-world benchmark datasets validate the ability of our approach to uncover structured relationships and deliver strong predictive performance.

点过程可解释性事件建模神经网络

Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。