用高斯分布建模动态场景,实现连续时间下的精准预测与规划
GEM: Gaussian Evolution Model for Occupancy Forecasting and Motion Planning

- 将场景表示为可学习运动的4维高斯体,支持任意时间点直接查询
- 在nuScenes上预测精度超越现有方法,长时序误差更小
- 适合需要连续时间推理的自动驾驶系统开发
未来3D语义占用预测与路径规划是自动驾驶的核心,需模型理解周围环境演化并决定自身行为。现有占用世界模型通常将场景离散化为潜在嵌入、体素特征或量化标记,并通过固定步长自回归生成未来状态,这限制了时间灵活性,掩盖了场景演化过程,长期累积误差,且难以匹配真实驾驶的连续时间动态。我们提出GEM:一种非自回归的高斯演化模型,将驾驶场景表示为具有学习动力学的显式连续4维高斯原语。不同于逐步滚动生成未来状态,GEM可直接在任意时间戳查询高斯世界表示,并将对应的条件3维高斯体投影到语义占用体中。该方法实现了全时域高效预测,同时保持紧凑可解释的场景表征。通过解耦空间几何、时间支撑与原语运动,使每个原语的演化可连续追踪。同一表示还可用于运动规划,从学习的高斯世界中预测未来自车轨迹。大量实验表明,GEM在nuScenes数据集上达到最先进的未来语义占用预测性能,并具备强大的运动规划能力,同时支持灵活的时间查询。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Future 3D semantic occupancy forecasting and motion planning are central to autonomous driving, as they require models to reason about how surrounding scenes evolve and how the ego vehicle should act. Existing occupancy world models commonly discretize scenes into latent embeddings, volumetric features, or quantized tokens, and forecast future states through fixed-step autoregressive generation. This limits temporal flexibility, obscures scene evolution, accumulates errors over long horizons, and poorly matches the continuous-time dynamics of real driving scenes. We propose GEM, a Gaussian Evolution Model for non-autoregressive occupancy world modeling, where driving scenes are represented as explicit continuous 4D Gaussian primitives with learned dynamics. Instead of rolling out future occupancy states step by step, GEM directly queries the Gaussian world representation at arbitrary timestamps and splats the corresponding conditional 3D Gaussians into semantic occupancy volumes. This enables efficient forecasting over the full horizon while retaining a compact and interpretable scene representation. By decoupling spatial geometry, temporal support, and primitive motion, GEM makes the predicted world easier to inspect, as each primitive's evolution can be followed continuously over time. The same representation also supports motion planning by predicting future ego trajectories from the learned Gaussian world. Extensive experiments show that GEM achieves state-of-the-art future semantic occupancy forecasting and strong motion planning performance, while providing flexible temporal querying.
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